In 2023, the logic affecting the price of acetone is mainly geopolitical, high energy and raw material prices, the supply and demand mismatch caused by the production of new devices, the low inventory of imported ships and goods in the port, the tight circulation of spot, and the flat construction of terminal factories, so that phenol ketone enterprises continue to be in a state of loss. As of November 21, 2023, the average domestic acetone price in 2023 was 6111 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.28%.

The domestic acetone market was mixed in the first half of the year, and the market was running at a high level in the second half of the year. In the first quarter, the acetone market as a whole showed a falling market after rising; The standoff after the rapid decline after the rise in the second quarter; From the third quarter, acetone soared and climbed to the highest point in the year. In the fourth quarter, with the production of new equipment, the supply of domestic goods increased, and there is no room for downside.

In the first quarter, Shenghong Refining and Chemical 650,000 tons, Jiangsu Ruiheng 650,000 tons, Guangxi Huayi 280,000 tons of phenol ketone equipment have been put into production, and domestic supply has increased. In late January, the Spring Festival holiday atmosphere is getting stronger, most terminal enterprises choose to withdraw from the market and wait, holding the goods business mentality under pressure shipment blocked, few transactions heard, wait for clarity after the Spring Festival, the trading atmosphere is cooling, and the acetone market amplitude is not large in the first quarter.

In the third quarter, the export arbitrage intention was enhanced, and with the release of new devices put into production in the first quarter, the import source was obviously squeezed, the ship and cargo delayed the arrival of the port, the port inventory declined, the concentration of spot resources increased, and the cargo holder pushed up the atmosphere. The downstream industry is in a profitable state, the procurement of acetone has changed to an optimistic attitude, and the procurement of raw materials has accelerated.

In the fourth quarter, the four sets of devices of concern will be put into production, acetone domestic supply is expected to surge, increase the market wait-and-see sentiment, although the new production capacity are supporting downstream bisphenol A devices, but the consumption of acetone is limited, foreign sales continue to increase, do not rule out the acetone market is expected to fall.

In the first and fourth quarters of 2023, new domestic production capacity will be concentrated, and new devices will still be put into production in the first quarter of 2024, although the downstream supporting devices will expand simultaneously, so based on the consideration of supply and demand balance, acetone will maintain a narrow fluctuation trend in the first quarter. With the arrival of summer, acetone demand is gradually reflected in the off-season, and the market center of gravity will be at risk of decline. After the heat, gold nine silver ten arrival, the acetone market has the power to push up, but it is necessary to pay attention to the release of the capacity of the downstream expansion device, the centralized production of the domestic phenol ketone device and the changes in the cost of raw materials, will have a greater impact on the acetone spot market. The most important thing is to look at the change in the difference between supply and demand and determine the price fluctuation range of the spot market. Longzhong information expects that the mainstream average price of acetone in 2024 May have the risk of falling year-on-year.