Recently, acrylonitrile production of the main raw materials propylene and synthetic ammonia prices have risen, the current Shandong market propylene price reached 6775 yuan/ton, synthetic ammonia price to 3105 yuan/ton, according to the product consumption theory calculation, acrylonitrile production only raw material cost is: 1.05* propylene +0.5* synthetic ammonia =8666 yuan/ton, excluding labor and processing costs. The market price of acrylonitrile has fallen recently, and the mainstream price of the East China market has dropped from 8400 yuan/ton to 8100 yuan/ton in the past week, and the acrylonitrile single product loss situation has increased, as shown in the figure below.

The main factor leading to the decline in the acrylonitrile market price is the weakening of the supply and demand side of the product itself, although the supply and demand have increased after entering August, but the supply increment is relatively more prominent. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry remained at about 78%, an increase of 15% from July. Downstream demand growth is also concentrated in the field of large factory contracts, ABS and acrylic fiber industry opening probability has increased, but the terminal demand and some small and medium-sized downstream areas are still in the off-season performance. The increase in supply is greater than the increase in demand, which leads to the inventory of some acrylonitrile manufacturers to rise again.

However, although the recent price of acrylonitrile and upstream varieties showed a reverse trend, but because the acrylonitrile production enterprises have lost money, so this trend is expected to last for a short time. With the continued existence and or further increase of cost pressure, it will prompt changes in the supply and demand side of acrylonitrile, and considering that the demand is still slow to follow up, so the supply side may be variable, which means that acrylonitrile continues to have limited downside.