Ammonium sulfate, which has continued to rise for more than a month, began to cool down from the end of last week, the market negotiations have significantly weakened, the profit shipment has increased, and the dealers who continue to receive goods in the early stage have also begun to reduce the price, which makes the ammonium sulfate market fear of falling mentality. From the bidding price this week, the market fell in 100-200 yuan/ton, and the northwest region fell more this week due to the early overrise. At present, dealers buy up do not buy down mentality is strong, most of the withdrawal from the market wait-and-see. There are two voices on the floor: one that the market is going to fall; The other is relatively optimistic about the market, and there is still room for rebound after a short fall! Longzhong Information believes that the key factor of market rise and fall is supply and demand.

Let’s look at the requirements first. Recently, due to strong export demand, the domestic price of ammonium sulfate has soared rapidly, and the price last week has touched the cost line of dealers, so the current price mentality is stronger. The current price has dropped significantly, with the cost reduction, some traders have begun to tentatively low inquiries, which shows that the market demand is still there. Superimposed agricultural use is expected to increase, most manufacturers are still optimistic. In addition, affected by the gradual improvement of international market demand, there are still export orders in September.

Now look at the supply side. Whether it is coke enterprises, caprolactam manufacturers or power plants or other by-product ammonium sulfate enterprises, under the continuous soaring market in the early stage, all of them are shipping smoothly, most of them have no inventory at present, and the supply of ammonium sulfate is relatively stable under the expected construction without significant changes, so in the short term, there is no supply pressure in the ammonium sulfate market.

Finally, take a look at the marking situation that we have been concerned about, after nearly half a month of twists and turns, finally ushered in the price landing. A total of 23 bidders, the total supply of 3.382,500 tons. The lowest CFR price on the East Coast is $396 / ton, and the lowest CFR price on the West Coast is $399 / ton. According to this price, the domestic factory price is about 2450-2500 yuan/ton (taking Shandong region as an example). From this price point of view, the domestic urea price can be said to be good, although the boost is not much, but still can have a strong support for the current market. Most of the benefits of this event have been digested by the market, so it is difficult to boost the ammonium sulfate market.

In summary, Longzhong Information believes that the current ammonium sulfate market fall is a rational adjustment of the previous high market, and the market demand is still there, so the current market fall does not have the conditions for a sharp fall, a short decline may be to jump higher!