一.The second half of the fundamental forecast

1.1 Production Forecast

According to Longzhong Information research, the aniline product industry plans to build 385,000 tons of production capacity in the second half of 2023, and there is no withdrawal capacity plan. The new production capacity is mainly distributed in South China, and the proposed enterprise is equipped with downstream product devices, the scale development of the industrial chain, and the reduction of procurement and transportation and other operating costs.

After the release of new aniline production capacity in the future, it will greatly change the domestic aniline supply pattern, and the aniline production in South China will radiate to the surrounding downstream factories in a near distance, effectively reducing the cost of downstream raw material procurement. In the second half of the year, Yantai Wanhua planned to overhaul, and all its aniline-MDI devices stopped, or affected the supply of aniline to some of its long-term customers. In addition, Fujian Wanhua plans to put into production in September, which has a great impact on the price of aniline in the south, and it is expected that the price of aniline in the second half of the year may be 9000-12000 yuan/ton

1.2 Consumption Forecast

In the second half of the year, domestic polymerization MDI maintenance devices are concentrated in August, November and December, the overall device is expected to shrink significantly, in addition to overseas devices in July and August there are multiple sets of device maintenance, the overall supply contraction, the domestic overall price may have a small boost, but in August and September due to the arrival of summer, high temperature weather may affect the downstream overall load, power limiting, limited production. As well as the home appliance industry into the off-season, the price is difficult to support. In October and November, with the downstream household appliances and pipeline industries entering the traditional peak season, and the rational maintenance of some devices is expected, it is possible to continue to rise. In the second half of the year, the main focus is on supply shrinkage and demand side follow-up. Considering that the price of polymerized MDI in the first half of the year is maintained at 14300-16300 yuan/ton, the demand is expected to recover in the year, the average price in the second half of the year is slightly higher than the level in the first half of the year, and the expected price is maintained at 15500-17000 yuan/ton.

1.3 Net import/net export forecast

At present, the domestic supply and demand of aniline are relatively balanced, and the enthusiasm for exports is weakening. Despite the reduction of domestic aniline production costs, downstream demand is relatively strong, which has certain support for the high price of aniline. It is expected that the quantity of aniline exports in the second half of the year will not change much compared with the first half of the year, but it is not ruled out that the surplus aniline will be sold overseas after Fujian Wanhua is put into operation.

1.4 Supply and demand balance forecast

二.The cost of the second half of the forecast

In the second half of the year, the forecast price of pure benzene is 6280-6800 yuan/ton, showing a trend of first rising and then falling.

In terms of crude oil, oil prices in the second half of the year have staged a rebound opportunity, showing a trend of rising first and then falling again on the whole, and the average monthly price may fluctuate in the range of 75-78 US dollars/barrel, with a small fluctuation range.

In terms of supply, the vast majority of pure benzene expansion in 2023 has been completed in the first half of the year, with a total of more than 3 million tons of new units of petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene being put into operation, and pure benzene production in the second half of the year is expected to show a wide increase compared with the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, only 100,000 tons of Anqing Petrochemical capacity was expanded in July, and 200,000 tons of Longjiang Chemical was newly built at the end of the year. However, hydrogenated benzene still has Puyang Zhonghui 500,000 tons, Chongqing Huafeng 200,000 tons, Ningxia Tongde Love 100,000 tons, Zaozhuang Zhenxing 200,000 tons, Henan Jinyuan Phase II 200,000 tons and other 1.2 million tons of new devices planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter.

In terms of demand, the downstream production of pure benzene in the second half of the year was concentrated, including the fourth set of styrene of Zhejiang Petrochemical, styrene of Anqing Petrochemical, Hengli new phenol and adipic acid, Fujian Wanhua aniline, Lusi, Shenyuan, Baling Petrochemical new caprolactam and other devices planned to be put into operation, and Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, which was postponed in the first half of the year. In addition to the traditional downstream, octane demand from ethylbenzene and cyclohexane is expected to provide a boost to pure benzene consumption. However, in the first half of the year, downstream varieties generally encountered a decline in the industry’s load after capacity expansion, and the consumption of pure benzene was lower than the production capacity. In the context of the end consumption in the second half of the year is still not optimistic, it is expected that the consumption of pure benzene will be significantly revised downward than the theoretical value.

In terms of imports, terminal demand in the United States and Europe continues to be depressed, and the summer travel peak in the United States in the second half of the year will end in September, the willingness of Northeast Asia to export pure benzene to China is expected to increase in the second half of the year, and the import volume may return to the level of 250-300,000 tons/month.

Overall, the price of crude oil in the second half of the year is relatively fixed, and the cost support is consolidated. The downstream theoretical production device exceeds the new installation of petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene, but the actual operating rate is expected to decline as a whole, and the import volume is expected to increase, so the supply and demand side of pure benzene is improved, but the range is limited. The price of pure benzene is expected in the third quarter due to the return of downstream maintenance equipment and the construction of new equipment to get the price rising power, but because of the weak downstream non-integration profits, pure benzene rose at the top of the low, with the release of hydrobenzene production capacity in the fourth quarter, the supply and demand side again turned to abundant supply, then the price is expected to show a downward trend.

In the second quarter, aniline was affected by weak demand and began to enter the downward channel. Based on the planned overhaul of Yantai Wanhua in August, if the overhaul plan is fulfilled as scheduled, it may be able to pull up the aniline market. However, in September, Fujian Wanhua and Chongqing Changfeng 2 units were put into operation, and the supply of aniline in South China and Southwest China increased significantly, enriching the surrounding downstream procurement sources. Overall, the second quarter and the third quarter of aniline market weak, but into the fourth quarter, some downstream began to receive orders for next year, the demand for raw materials has a certain increase, the fourth quarter of aniline prices are expected to rebound compared with the third quarter.