1. Overview of import and export data

In October 2023, China’s base oil imports were 61,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous month, or 61.95%. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2023 was 1.463 million tons, a decrease of 83,000 tons, or 5.36%, from the same period last year.

In October 2023, China’s base oil exports of 25,580.7 tons, an increase of 21,961 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 86.5%. The cumulative export volume from January to October 2023 was 143,200 tons, an increase of 2.1 tons, or 17.65%, from the same period last year.

2. Influencing factors

Imports: Imports decreased in October, down 62%, mainly due to: In October, international oil prices are high, refinery production costs are also high, importers and other import cost pressure, and domestic market demand is not strong, more just need to purchase mainly, trading is lukewarm, so there is no import intention, terminals and so on to buy mainly on demand, so the import volume decreased significantly, including South Korea imports fell significantly compared with September, reducing 58%.

Exports: Exports rebounded from a low level in October, with an increase of 606.9%, and more resources were exported to Singapore and India.

3. Net imports

In October 2023, China’s net import of base oil was 36,000 tons, with a growth rate of -77.3%, and the growth rate decreased by 186 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the current net import volume of base oil is in the reduction stage.

4. Import and export structure

4.1 Import

4.1.1 Country of production and marketing

In October 2023, China’s base oil imports by production/regional statistics, ranked in the top five are: South Korea, Singapore, Qatar, Thailand, China Taiwan. The combined imports of these five countries were 55,000 tons, accounting for about 89.7% of the total imports for the month, a decrease of 5.3% from the previous month

4.1.2 Mode of trade

In October 2023, China’s base oil imports were counted by trade mode, with general trade, import and export goods from bonded supervision places, and processing trade of incoming materials as the top three trade modes. The sum of imports of the three trade modes is 60,900 tons, accounting for about 99.2% of the total imports.

4.1.3 Place of registration

In October 2023, China’s base oil imports by registration name statistics, the top five are: Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Liaoning. The total import volume of these five provinces was 58,700 tons, accounting for 95.7%.

4.2 Export

4.2.1 Country of production and marketing

In October 2023, China’s base oil exports by production/regional statistics, ranked in the top five are: Singapore, India, South Korea, Russia, Malaysia. The combined exports of these five countries amounted to 24,500 tons, accounting for about 95.8% of the total exports for the month.

4.2.2 Mode of trade

In October 2023, China’s base oil exports were counted according to trade methods, with incoming processing trade, inbound and outbound goods from bonded supervision places, and general trade ranking the top three trade methods. The total export volume of the three trade modes is 25,000 tons, accounting for about 99.4% of the total export volume.

5. Trend prediction

In November, China’s base oil imports are expected to be about 100,000 tons, an increase of about 63% from the previous month; Exports are expected to be around 18,000 tons, down about 29% from the previous month. The main basis of judgment is affected by the high cost of imports, importers, traders and terminals are not good, October imports are the lowest level in recent years, crude oil prices in November, while overseas refineries and other price cuts to stimulate sales, coupled with terminals and other just need to purchase, so imports in November or have a small rebound, limited import cost reduction, imports or growth is limited.