In the first and second quarters, the domestic bisphenol A market trend is weak, in June fell to A new five-year low price of 8700 yuan/ton, but in the third quarter, bisphenol A ushered in a continuous rise in the highlight moment, the market price also rose to the current highest level of 12,050 yuan/ton this year. However, prices rose to a high level, downstream demand followed and weakened, and the market re-entered the shock retreat stage.

As of the end of September 2023, the mainstream negotiated price of East China bisphenol A market is about 11,500 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan/ton from the beginning of July, an increase of 25%; The average market price in the third quarter was 10,763 yuan/ton, up 13.93% from the previous quarter and down 16.54% from the same period last year.

The first stage – July: the bisphenol A market presents an “N” type trend.

In early July, after continuous destocking in the early stage, the amount of bisphenol A spot circulation resources was not large, manufacturers and middlemen actively supported the market, and some PC downstream and middleman inquiries were replenishment, which promoted the bisphenol A market from 9200 yuan/ton quickly to 10,000 yuan/ton, during which Zhejiang Petrochemical multi-round auction rose sharply, but also injected impetus into the market. The middle price is high, the downstream stage of replenishment after digestion, bisphenol A market trading atmosphere has weakened. In the latter half of the year, bisphenol A holders profit taking, coupled with the downstream shock drop, bisphenol A spot transaction is not smooth, some middlemen and manufacturers to make profits to ship, East China negotiations fell to 9600-9700 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, the two raw materials phenol acetone rose strongly, pushing the cost of bisphenol A to rise, and the cost pressure of producers increased, and the price began to rise near the end of the month, and bisphenol A followed the cost rise.

Phase II – Early August – Mid to late September: The bisphenol A market continues to recover to the highest level so far this year.

At the beginning of August, driven by the strong rise of phenol and acetone, the market price of bisphenol A was firm and high, and the bisphenol A equipment was centralized maintenance during the stage, Nantong Star, Huizhou Zhongxin, Luxi Chemical, Jiangsu Ruiheng, Wanhua Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II equipment were all stopped in August, and the market supply plummeted; And experienced the early inventory, the downstream just need to replenish the follow-up pace is ok. Cost, supply and demand of good superposition, bisphenol A market firm rise; Entering September, the international crude oil performance is strong, led by pure benzene, phenol acetone continue to rise, bisphenol A rising ship, producers’ offers continue to rise, and the market spot supply is tight, the downstream National Day stock demand to follow up, in mid-September, the market price rose to the current highest point this year 12,050 yuan/ton.

The third stage – mid-to-late September – the end of the month: the high level of the bisphenol A market fell.

In the middle and late September, with the price rising to a high level, the pace of downstream buying slowed down, only a small amount of steel needs to be replenished at the appropriate price, and market trading turned weak; Raw material phenol acetone high fall, bisphenol A cost support weakened, buyers and sellers wait-and-see sentiment, downstream market resupply cautious, double section stock less than expected, with the advent of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day double holiday, some of the shipper shipping mentality is more obvious, the real single profit delivery, at the end of the month, the focus of market negotiations fell to 11500-11600 yuan/ton.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, in terms of cost, the raw material phenol acetone is still expected to decline, but considering the average contract price and cost line, it is expected that the downward space is limited, and the cost support of bisphenol A is limited; In terms of supply and demand, Changchun Chemical has been repaired since October 9, and is expected to end in early November, South Asia Plastics and Zhejiang Petrochemical have maintenance plans in November, individual devices have parking maintenance plans in late October, and other devices have no clear maintenance plans. Overall, there is A loss of bisphenol A in the fourth quarter, but at the same time, At the beginning of October, Jiangsu Ruiheng phase II bisphenol A plant operation gradually stabilized, Qingdao Bay, Hengli Petrochemical, Longjiang Chemical and other sets of new devices are planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter, when the production capacity and output of bisphenol A will be significantly commission, and the weak recovery of the demand side of the market continues to be difficult to get rid of constraints, the contradiction between supply and demand will be intensified. In terms of market mentality, the lack of cost support, supply and demand performance are short, and in recent years, the bisphenol A market has fallen more and less, and the industry is not confident in the future market, and the trading is cautious and wait-and-see, which also inhibits the downstream purchasing pace to a certain extent.

In summary, the fourth quarter of the bisphenol A market is difficult to find good, is expected to have a significant decline in market prices compared with the third quarter, new equipment production progress, raw materials rise and fall, downstream demand follow-up situation is the main focus of the market.