In 2023, the overall profit performance of the main downstream butadiene industry rose and then fell, and the profits of the industrial chain gradually transferred to the upstream after September. According to the mainstream brands of upstream and downstream products and the main representative market price data, the profits of the ABS industry continued to reverse after August, and the range continued to deepen. The profits of the synthetic rubber industry ended the high profit state since June, and fell to the upside down state in November.

Affected by the continuous pressure on downstream profits, the capacity utilization rate of butadiene’s main downstream industries has gradually decreased. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was estimated at 68.23%, down 7.82 percentage points from the previous month. SBS industry capacity utilization rate in 43.86%, down 12.97 percentage points; The capacity utilization rate of ABS industry was 74.90%, down 4.80 percentage points from the previous month, while maintaining the downward trend since August.

Due to the pressure on the main downstream profits of butadiene, and the gradual decline in the capacity utilization rate of the industry, the consumption of raw material butadiene in the downstream industry has decreased. In November, butadiene consumption in the main downstream industry was estimated at 298,700 tons, down 8.29% from the previous month.

As of November, China’s butadiene spot market has maintained a continuous upward trend for five months, affected by terminal demand and its own fundamental news, the market trend of the main downstream industries has gradually performed under pressure, upstream and downstream trend divergence, price spreads narrowed, affecting downstream profits, construction and other cascading downward trend. In December, on the one hand, the necessary condition for whether the current situation of weak demand can be reversed is nothing more than “giving interest to the downstream” to stimulate demand. On the other hand, can the supply side of the butadiene market continue the strong situation in the early stage? The production increase affected by the restart of the early maintenance device and the increase of imported goods caused by the low price of external disks deserve continuous attention.