WTI oil prices continue to oscillate around $45, but the recent shift in the center of gravity is obvious. Saudi Arabia’s increased offer for Asian markets after the Opec meeting reflected its optimism about market demand.
The Trump administration has appealed to the Supreme Court after new evidence revealed that there were counting problems in the election despite the transition of power after the us election. The us economic assistance plan for the epidemic is again under negotiation, and the market is looking forward to the outcome.
The global epidemic is still spreading. There has been both good and bad news on the vaccine front, and overall, the launch date is approaching.
China’s exports in November (in DOLLAR terms) were up 21.1% from a year earlier, expected to rise 9.5%, compared with 11.4% from a year earlier, and imports were up 4.5% from a year earlier, expected to rise 4.3% from a year earlier; The trade surplus hit a record high of $75.42 billion, up from $58.44 billion. In yuan terms, exports rose 14.9 percent, up from 7.6 percent.
Market forecast of some chemicals:
1. Forecast: The amount of methanol in port circulation increased significantly last weekend. The inventory of manufacturers in northern production areas is low and the overall operating rate does not change much. If there is no big positive factors, it is expected that methanol will still be mainly processed by shock this week.
2. Forecast: toluene, xylene domestic plant start low, the overall demand is weak. Port inventories continue to fall. Oil price volatility is strong. Expected this week domestic toluene, xylene market shock slightly stronger.
3. Forecast: THE operation rate of PVC manufacturers is improved, but the pre-order has not been completed, and the market available spot quantity is relatively small. In the north, due to environmental protection and other reasons, downstream demand slightly decreased. Selling area downstream conflict high prices but just need to stabilize. At the end of last week, the cash market rally slowed, the market is expected to continue this week’s high volatility strong, also need to note that the January futures contract is still at risk of significant volatility.
4. Forecast: Last week, acrylic acid and ester supply is tight and related raw materials rising under the good news to continue to strengthen. At present, the spot supply is still tight, manufacturers will not reduce the price, just need to follow up the downstream situation is ok. Acrylic acid and ester is expected this week’s spot market continuation of strong finishing operation.
5. Forecast: The prices of maleic anhydride fell sharply and quickly last week, reproducing the situation of roller coaster. Due to the anticipation of the downstream rigid demand, maleic anhydride manufacturers have a sealing plate to rise action. The rally is expected to continue this week.
6, some foreign equipment failure shutdown, coupled with strong cost support, styrene market welcomed a rebound in the beginning of the week. However, domestic units into production, and the subsequent demand is weak, it is estimated that the styrene market will be limited in the short term.
7. Lack of coordination between supply and demand, it is estimated that acetone market will have little room for short-term rise.
8. It is estimated that the DOP market may bottom out in the short term due to cost release and sluggish downstream demand.
9, chance of chance if there is no major good stimulus, estimate the short-term rise of the phthalic anhydride market is more difficult.
10. Based on the weak supply and demand situation, it is estimated that the MMA market may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.
11. Strong cost support, but domestic supply is expected to increase. It is estimated that in the short term, the phenol market may mainly deal with shocks.
12, periphery good, PTA spot market shock last week strong. However, due to the relatively weak fundamentals, it is estimated that PTA market will be limited in the short term.
13, the cost support is strong, but the downstream push role is general, it is estimated that the pure benzene market in the short term or will be firm consolidation.
14. The supply side presents a certain positive, but the lack of effective cooperation with the demand, it is estimated that the tianjiao market will be mainly shaken in the short term, paying attention to the guidance of peripheral factors.
Last week, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. At present, the factory is already tight in delivery, combined with the unexpected shutdown of BP plant in Nanjing, the supply side is further tightened. However, due to the rapid rise of market price and strong resistance in the downstream, it is expected that the market may slow down this week compared with last week.
16. Domestic butanone market went up sharply last week. The factory has no inventory pressure, and the downstream inquiry atmosphere to improve, stage into the market and centralized procurement, driven by the atmosphere of buying up, it is expected that the market may still go up this week.
17, last week, the domestic ethylene glycol market shock is strong. Volatility consolidation of international oil prices; At present, the continuation of port to port is relatively few; Although some units of ethylene glycol were restarted, there were still some units undergoing maintenance and negative reduction, and the supply increment was less than expected. The downstream polyester end starts to maintain high, stable demand performance. It is expected that the afternoon glycol interval consolidation is likely to be strong.
18, last week, the domestic diethylene glycol market volatility callback. Volatility consolidation of international oil prices; At present, the starting load of domestic installations remains low, the replenishment of port-to-ship quantity is limited, and the unfavorable weather affects the continuous decline of port inventory, so the downstream resin industry tends to weaken. Market shock consolidation is expected to be more likely this week.
19. Volatility consolidation of international oil prices; Higher futures boost spot; Petrochemical inventory increased compared with the previous period; Downstream high conflict, just need to purchase; Domestic enterprises operating rate is higher, supply pressure is still in. To sum up, it is expected that this week’s domestic PE market volatility consolidation possibility.
20. Volatility consolidation of international oil prices; Futures rose; Petrochemical destocking rate slowed down; Downstream demand traditional off-season will come, just need to take goods; The unit maintenance loss changes little. To sum up, it is expected that the PP market this week narrow consolidation possibility.