1. Production analysis of crude benzene in the first half of the year

In 2020, concentrated capacity reduction is coming to an end, and coking capacity has maintained a net new trend since 2021. A net reduction of 25 million tons of coking capacity in 2020, a net increase of 26 million tons of coking capacity in 2021, and a net increase of about 25.5 million tons in 2022; In 2023, due to the impact of coking profits and downstream demand, the operation time of some new coking production capacity is delayed. As of June 30, 2023, 15.78 million tons of coking production capacity has been eliminated in 2023, and 15.58 million tons has been added, with a net elimination of 200,000 tons. It is expected that in 2023, 48.38 million tons of coking production capacity will be eliminated, with an increase of 42.27 million tons and a net elimination of 6.11 million tons. Production capacity in the first half of 2023 was little changed from last year.

Comparative table of changes in crude benzene production/start-up in the first half of 2022          Unit: tons, %, percent

In the first half of 2023, the crude benzene output of coking units in China was 2.435 million tons, +2.68% year-on-year. The average capacity utilization rate in the first half of the year was 73.51%, year-on-year -2.77. The net elimination of coking capacity in the first half of 2023 was 200,000 tons, and the overall production capacity did not fluctuate much compared with the first half of last year. However, in the first half of the year, affected by coking profits and downstream demand, coke enterprises could not produce at full capacity, and capacity utilization declined, but the market started to be significantly regional. The main producing area of coking coal is mostly gathered in North China, Shanxi coking enterprises cost control is relatively easy compared with other areas, the first half of the North China, East China, the operating rate did not change significantly, but the northwest area of serious production restrictions, so although the capacity utilization rate declined, but the crude benzene production is the main reason for the increase. However, at present, crude benzene production, crude benzene is still in a tight supply situation.

2. Analysis of crude benzene consumption in the first half of the year

Consumption statistics of benzene hydrogenation enterprises in the first half of 2023               Unit: ten thousand tons

Benzene hydrogenation in the first half of 2023 new/restart production capacity table                 Unit: 10,000 tons/year

In the first half of 2023, the raw material consumption of benzene hydrogenation unit was 2,802,600 tons, an increase of 9.11%. The highest value appeared in May, the monthly consumption of 50.25 million tons, the same operating rate also led to the price of crude benzene, the highest price in the first half of the year is also in April. The main reason is that the profit increase, led to the increase in the operating rate of benzene hydrogenation enterprises, in addition, there are two long-term long-term discontinued devices injected funds to restart, Tangshan Xuyang Phase II plant put into operation, increased consumption of crude benzene, but also brought favorable support to the price of crude benzene.

3, crude benzene import analysis                   

Import data of crude benzene in the first half of 2023

In the first half of 2023, China’s crude benzene imports increased significantly, which was +232.49% compared with last year. In the first half of the year, the domestic crude benzene market has been in a state of short supply, many coke enterprises are on the edge of profit and loss, the enthusiasm of enterprises is not high, and the crude benzene production is small; The maintenance and restart of the downstream benzene hydrogenation unit on the demand side has significantly increased the start of benzene hydrogenation enterprises, and the demand is strong, the domestic crude benzene supply is tight, and the supplement of crude benzene import sources has slightly alleviated the pressure of domestic short supply. In addition, in the first half of the import source countries in addition to Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Oman, of which 26992.904 tons from Oman since February to crude benzene customs declaration, but the consumption flow did not flow into benzene hydrogenation enterprises. Excluding Oman’s imports, domestic crude benzene imports in the first half of the year were +29.96% compared with the same period last year.

4, crude benzene supply and demand balance analysis

Limited by profit and environmental factors, crude benzene production is limited, although imports have increased, but the total supply is still less than downstream consumption. In the first half of the year, affected by the improvement of profits of benzene hydrogenation enterprises, some closed enterprises restarted, and new projects were put into production one after another, and the consumption of crude benzene increased. From the current supply and demand difference, the supply and demand difference in the first half of the year was -323,300 tons, and the state of crude benzene in short supply continued.

Joyce

MIT-IVY INDUSTRY Co.,Ltd.

Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China

Phone/WhatsApp : + 86 19961957599

Email : joyce@mit-ivy.com http://www.mit-ivy.com