The recent international market news has limited support, and crude oil trends have entered a phased consolidation stage. On the one hand, EIA has raised oil price estimates and lowered production expectations, which is good for oil prices. In addition, economic data from China and the United States also support the market, but oil country production The increase in production and the restart of the blockade in some countries have affected the optimism of demand recovery. Investors are reconsidering the relationship between supply and demand, and crude oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range.

　　According to calculations, as of the seventh working day on April 12, the average price of reference crude oil was US$62.89/barrel, and the rate of change was -1.65%. The retail price of gasoline and diesel should be reduced by RMB 45/ton. Because crude oil is unlikely to have a strong rebound in the short-term trend, the positive and negative news continue to stalemate, and the recent trend may continue to be within a narrow range. Affected by this, the probability of this round of price adjustment increases, which means that the domestic retail price of refined oil is likely to usher in The “two consecutive declines” this year. According to the “ten working days” principle, the price adjustment window for this round is 24:00 on April 15th.

In terms of the wholesale market, although the probability of this round of retail price reduction has increased, since April, the local refinery and main business centralized maintenance have been launched one after another, the supply of market resources has begun to tighten, and there is news that the collection process of LCO consumption tax may be accelerated. Fermentation began on April 7, and the news has supported the performance. The wholesale market prices have begun to rebound. Among them, the local refinery has increased significantly. As of today, the price indices of Shandong Dilian 92# and 0# are 7053 and 5601, respectively, compared with April 7. Daily rose 193 and 114 respectively. The market response of the main business units is relatively lagging, and the prices were basically stable last week. This week, gasoline prices generally rose by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the price of diesel increased weakly. As of today, the price indices of the main domestic units 92# and 0# were respectively They were 7490 and 6169, up 52 and 4 respectively from April 7.

　　 Looking at the market outlook, although the increased probability of downward adjustments has suppressed market conditions, the local refinery market is still supported by the rising news and reduced resource supply, and there is still a possibility of a small increase in the local refinery in the short term. From the perspective of main business units, the main business units in the middle of the month are mainly active in volume. Because the downstream demand for gasoline and diesel is still acceptable in the near future, the intermediary traders have reached the stage replenishment node. It is expected that the main business unit prices will continue to increase in the short-term. The internal trend is mainly narrowed, and the sales policy is flexible to adapt to the market.