“Gold nine silver ten” traditional polyester industry chain peak season, the overall output of polyester has been significantly improved, but the terminal mentality is not ideal, the load is maintained at 65% above. The rapid increase in supply, high inventory is difficult to alleviate, coupled with the lack of promotion on the demand side, ethylene glycol will continue to be weak.

Imports are up year on year due to poor overseas demand

Although the polyester end performed well this year, data from January to September show that domestic polyester production reached 47,657,500 tons, an increase of 10.95%. The domestic ethylene glycol production has also had a large growth, overseas prices are relatively high, the first half of the domestic ethylene glycol imports contracted sharply, but the overseas economic situation is not optimistic, huge resources are difficult to consume, from August began a large number of ethylene glycol into China, the market formed a big impact, the fourth quarter overseas demand further contracted, imports or will remain relatively high.

In the traditional peak season, the terminal performance is tepid

Cashmere warm fabrics are still good, and some home textile orders are narrow and warm, but the sustainability needs to be further confirmed. Warp knitting enterprises are still mainly based on domestic trade seasonal warm fabrics, more conventional categories, but the profit compression is serious, and foreign trade orders are relatively weak. Round machine after the National Day emergency single support, hoodie cloth and polar fleece fabric goods are relatively good, some factory load narrow increase. Water spraying enterprises in winter gall cloth delivery is relatively stable, other mainstream grey cloth delivery situation is more general. At present, the overall operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving is maintained near 65%. In the follow-up, the new textile orders or further weakened, weaving starts to reduce expectations.

Low downstream procurement enthusiasm port high inventory is difficult to alleviate

The arrival volume of the port is relatively stable, while the traditional peak season terminal performance is lukewarm, mainly on-demand procurement, and the port inventory is maintained at about 1 million tons. In the future, there will still be new equipment put into production in China, and domestic supply is expected to increase, while the demand side is difficult to have a large increase in expectations, and the situation of high inventory at the main port is difficult to fundamentally alleviate.

This year, the polyester industry has recovered well, but because the terminal orders are mostly small and medium-sized orders and short-term orders, and the overall profit has been severely compressed, resulting in the overall procurement enthusiasm frustrated. The supply side also increased clearly, from January to September, the domestic ethylene glycol production reached 120.79 million tons, an increase of 22.56%. The overall supply and demand maintain a weak pattern, and there are more unstable factors in the macro aspect, the lack of sustainable good drivers, and the weak pattern of the glycol market is difficult to change.