After entering December, ethylene glycol appeared a wave of downward trend, but under the lower bargain buying interest is obviously strong, the mainstream market within the year around 4000 price support is obvious, bargain buying interest is increased, the market bottomed out.

At present, with no obvious favorable support on the cost side and supply side of ethylene glycol, the main reason for the strengthening of the market is that the main downstream performance is OK, and the supply and demand structure is better, and the market bearish logic is insufficient.

From the polyester operating rate, after entering 12, the polyester operating rate continues to maintain close to 90% of the operating rate, the production capacity base is 80.75 million tons, the daily consumption of polyester is about 196,000 tons, and the daily consumption of ethylene glycol is near 65,500 tons, and the current domestic daily output of ethylene glycol is 48,000 tons, plus the supplement of imports, the supply and demand relationship is slightly less than the demand. If this state can continue, the inventory is expected to go to storage.

The figure above is the 2022/2023 polyester weighted production and sales comparison chart, weighted production and sales for polyester main products polyester filament, staple fiber, slice weighted according to the proportion of production capacity, from the perspective of polyester production and sales, the average production and sales in December at 44.%, month-on-month and year-on-year there was a certain decline, but the capacity base expansion of the case, The actual data are still relatively positive.

From the perspective of polyester cash flow, with the continuous fall of crude oil, polyester industry chain profits although there is still a certain loss, but the profit level has significantly improved compared with November, the profit situation is expected to continue to improve, the industry appears healthy development trend, the market’s confidence in the late demand end has increased.

From the delivery data point of view, after December, the main port delivery data showed a good state, continued to maintain at the level of 13,000 tons/day, the delivery data improved, indicating that downstream factories are more recognized for the current price of ethylene glycol, the willingness to receive goods has increased, from the delivery data performance, confirmed the downstream polyester construction optimistic situation.

From the perspective of inventory, there was a wave of inventory signs in December, and the inventory once reached more than 1.2 million tons, which has a certain relationship with the change in production capacity, but the inventory data on December 11 showed a decline again, indicating that the probability of late inventory is small.

Overall, under the resonance of a variety of factors, the current price in the bottom range has been recognized by most market participants, but when to get rid of the bottom, there is an upward trend, but also need more positive support, otherwise, the market will still fluctuate in a narrow range in the bottom range.