In September 2023, crude oil remained high and volatile, heavy refinery raw materials were more common, and affected by tight crude oil imports and use quotas, short-term shutdown or negative operation of refinery installations remained, and the demand for intermediate materials rose. Domestic fuel oil commodity volume in September continued to decline slightly from August. In September, the domestic refinery fuel oil commodity volume was 1,021,300 tons, down 2.19% month-on-month and up 11.54% year on year. The domestic fuel oil commercial volume from January to September 2023 was 9,057,300 tons, an increase of 2,468,100 tons, or 37.46%, compared with the same period last year.

The fuel oil commercial volume in Shandong was 495,100 tons, down 24.35% from the previous quarter. This month, the fuel oil commodity volume in Shandong region fell significantly from the previous month. The specific analysis is as follows: In terms of the slurry market, the refinery under the China Chemical Group has staged the volume, the Xinyue catalytic unit has operated normally, and the Luqing slurry has been released normally. Although the catalytic start of individual refineries has decreased, the overall commodity volume of oil slurry has increased compared with the previous month; In terms of residuum, Qicheng plant resumed production successively, Junsheng plant resumed production in the latter half of the year after suspension of maintenance, Aoxing production suspended residuum export sales declined, Luqing petrochemical residuum also stopped export, overall, Shandong ground slag oil commodity volume decreased significantly; In terms of wax oil, restricted by high costs, Luqing, Aoxing and other wax oil suspended external release, while the supply of wax in the second half of the month is tight and the price is high, Changyi, Shengxing and other wax short-term external release, the overall wax volume declined sharply from last month.

The amount of fuel oil in East China was 37,700 tons, down 36.75% from the previous month. This month, the oil slurry commodity volume in the East China market is relatively stable, the price of low-sulfur residuum is driven by crude oil, and the consumption direction of low-sulfur residuum in East China is mainly inclined to the direction of ship-fuel, ship-fuel mixing cost is under pressure, and downstream orders are cautious, resulting in a significant decline in the volume of residuum commodity.

The fuel oil commodity volume in Northeast China was 265,400 tons, up 114.03% from the previous month. In the middle and early part of this month, residual oil in Northeast China has a large arbitrage range with other markets, and shipments have increased significantly. And the main refinery Haoye residual oil and wax oil exported stable output, the overall market fuel oil commodity volume showed a sharp rise.

The amount of fuel oil in North China was 147,600 tons, up 0.41% from the previous month. This month, the residual oil, wax oil and oil slurry of the main refinery in North China were basically stable, and the commodity volume did not fluctuate much from the previous month.

The volume of fuel oil in Northwest China was 17,200 tons, up 13.16% from the previous month. In September, the main external refinery in the northwest market converted to low-sulfur residual oil, and the commodity volume declined, but the extended oil slurry shipment was better, and the overall commodity volume rose from the previous month.

The volume of fuel oil in southwest China was 59,000 tons, up 31.11% from the previous month. This month, Shandong, North China, East China and other places low-sulfur residue just need to support, the price has risen, the southwest low-sulfur residue with the increase is weaker than the eastern region, the arbitrage range has widened, the volume of commodities increased significantly last month.

In September, the proportion of each product in the domestic fuel oil commodity volume did not change much, the residual oil and wax oil commodity volume declined slightly, and the oil slurry commodity volume increased significantly. In September, the commodity volume of residual oil was 664,100 tons, down 2.85% from the previous month. Residual oil commodity volume accounted for 65% of the total domestic fuel oil commodity volume, down 1 percentage point from the previous month. The main growth point of residual oil this month is in the northeast, the main refinery Haoye coking unit before the stable release of residual oil, and the Northeast and North China, Shandong arbitrage window is stable, a large number of contracts outflow, the increase of Northeast residual oil is obvious. During the same period, Shandong area Qicheng normal and vacuum maintenance, Luqing petrochemical residue suspended external discharge and other impacts, residual oil commodity volume declined significantly, East China, North China, Southwest and other places are relatively stable, rise and fall offset, a comprehensive view of residual oil slightly fell last month. In September, the commercial volume of wax oil was 258,400 tons, down 5.93% from the previous month; Wax oil commodity volume accounted for 25% of the total domestic fuel oil commodity volume, down 1 percentage point from the previous month. The main wax oil market is still Shandong region and the northeast region, Shandong region due to high crude oil prices, some refineries are limited by cost to suspend the wax production, some refineries after the completion of secondary equipment maintenance, the volume of exhaled commodity has also declined significantly, the volume of wax commodity decreased significantly month on month, while the main refinery in Northeast China Haoye wax stable exhaled, the volume of wax commodity increased significantly. The rise and fall offset the narrow decline of wax oil month on month. In September, the commodity volume of oil slurry was 98,800 tons, up 12,900 tons or 15.02% from the previous month; Oil slurry commodity volume accounted for 10% of the total domestic fuel oil commodity volume, up 2 percentage points from the previous month. The main rising area of oil slurry is Shandong region, the production of oil slurry in Xinyue, Qicheng, Luqing and other refineries has returned to normal, and the commercial volume of oil slurry has risen significantly compared with the previous month.

Future market forecast:

In October, the start and stop of equipment in Shandong market decreased, and production and sales basically remained stable; After the secondary processing unit of the main refinery in Northeast China is opened, the amount of residual oil is reduced, and the plan of wax oil is still maintained. In addition, crude oil high volatility, but a new batch of crude oil processing quotas or will be decentralized, domestic fuel oil supply tension will be eased, overall, in October domestic fuel oil commodity volume narrow fluctuations, fluctuations range of about 900-950,000 tons.