[Introduction] : In the first three quarters of 2023, the overall trend of domestic methanol futures fell first and then rose, in the first half of the year, the unlimited positive logic of the current price difference made good profits, and the circulation of goods continued to be tight, making the first half of the year basically every month under the soft tight performance; Futures bounced back in the third quarter, but the port opened the cumulative storage mode, and the spot ended the premium pattern for up to 10 months.

The change of market operation during the year can be divided into two stages:

 The first stage (January 1 – June 12) : this stage of the international oil price shock fell, although there was a sharp rebound during the Opec production cut, but the time was short, and soon fell again due to the difficulty of demand follow-up. Methanol futures at this stage of the main trading logic is crude oil, the United States interest rate hike cycle and other macro factors and costs (that is, coal), coal prices continue to fall (this network tracks Inner Mongolia to the factory coal fell to the lowest near 620 yuan/ton), supporting the cash flow of enterprises in the production area to recover, supply expectations under the pressure of the disk even a new low, the lowest fell to 1953 yuan/ton in June.

 The second stage (June 13 – September 28) : this stage methanol futures bottomed out, the smooth decline brought about by the cost logic ended, the disk showed strong support in 1950-2000 yuan/ton, and the main trading logic of the rebound was expected in demand. Crude oil in the context of low supply and demand exceeded expectations, resulting in continuous inventory depletion, supporting a strong rebound in oil prices; Methanol itself is the overall supply and demand double, the mainland supply of stock and new devices have landed, but the inventory continues to be at a low state, the market understands that the traditional downstream demand is stable; At the same time, although the high level of import supply is 1.3-1.4 million tons/month, the low inventory base in the early stage makes the market think that the pressure of the port area is not big, and the supply of circulating goods is tight. Coupled with the expectation of the restart of Xingxing and Shenghong and the subsequent substantive landing, the port table needs to be supported by the double boost of methanol in macro and its own demand. September 19, the highest rebound to 2662 yuan/ton.

 Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the import supply from October to November is still maintained at a high level of more than 1.3 million tons, although the market is expected to reduce under the negative impact of Iran’s gas restrictions in December, but the seasonal storage intensity or less than in previous years. In addition, the mainland market price in 2023 has been in a strong state, and even the volume of backflow to Jiangxi, Guangxi and Hunan has frequently occurred in South China. It is expected that in the winter of 2023, the regional pattern may be different from previous years, the price difference between the mainland and East China ports may be more difficult to widen to the mainland cargo arbitrage port volume, the futures board maintains the price of imported goods, which has a high supply pressure, and the energy cost support brought by coal and crude oil, and it is expected that the methanol futures in the fourth quarter or a large probability of weak volatility.