In 2023, the MMA market experienced four waves of wide rising markets, mainly due to the fundamental considerations to break the conventional trend, such as in addition to factory planned maintenance accidents, accompanied by sudden parking, the market supply tightened to support the market many times up, of which the East China market broke through the “12000″ or more highs four times, the end of the market rally, the East China market reference 12800 yuan/ton near. 2024 opening all the way red, a new high, as of January 9, the East China market in the 13,100 yuan/ton since the price of the near, there are still some higher offers, South China market heard that some high prices traded at 14,000 yuan/ton or more.

As can be seen from the figure above, the market has risen significantly since December 2023, with a wide upward trend, and the price has continuously broken through the high point, and the opening price in 2024 has reached a new high in a year, once again refreshing the industry’s cognition.

1, the primary concern of the rising market: MMA factory capacity utilization rate is low

Since 2023, the capacity utilization rate of the MMA industry has remained at 40%-60%, which is relatively low, and the capacity utilization rate has further declined from December to January 2024, which is also the most important factor causing the market to rise.

2. Concern 2: Regional supply and demand relationship, supply direction and price difference change

In 2023, the price difference between East China and South China narrowed, among which 305,000 tons of new production capacity was added during the year, 100,000 tons in Northeast China, 120,000 tons in South China and 85,000 tons in East China. Behind the production capacity growth, the fixed transport mode between regions, the price difference relationship, and the supply and demand relationship between different regions were broken. For example, the northeast no longer sends ships to South China, and the regional price difference narrates. As can be seen from the following table, the arbitrage advantage of East and South China has gradually weakened, mainly due to changes in regional supply and demand relations.

Some stages of the capacity utilization rate trend of the MMA industry are closely related to the capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, which is also the most concerned factor in 2023, and supply and demand dominate the MMA market trend, and the impact of device start-up is the most obvious. Behind the factors affecting the start of work in addition to unexpected situations, there is also the pressure brought by the profit situation of the industrial chain products behind the planned overhaul, such as the profit difference of acrylonitrile in some time periods, and the start of the decline.

4, focus 4: Fundamental changes break the conventional thinking recently the market has been higher

Fundamentals as the main factor affecting the price, it is worth paying attention to, the main reason for the market to rise many times in 2023 is the supply support, the off-season is not weak, the peak season is not prosperous, and the fundamental changes have broken the conventional thinking. Such as the off-season demand in the fourth quarter, the end of the year is often light, and the rally ends at the end of 2023.

In the short-term market, the supply shortage situation is difficult to completely alleviate, some factories are delayed to restart, the ship’s partial cargo arrival at the port is delayed, and the market trend or maintain a strong tone. Continue to pay attention to the dynamic changes of equipment and trading dynamics on the floor.