Good news boosted the day after the rubber rose back

This week, the overall operation of the commodity economy continued to recover to a good trend, stimulating the market bullish sentiment, the amount of overseas raw materials was less than expected, the purchase price of raw materials was strong, and the supply side boosted the price of rubber. Dark glue to maintain the warehouse, light-colored glue inventory growth slowed down, inventory pressure has eased. The fundamental positive factors dominate, and the upward drive of rubber price is strong.

By the fall in international crude oil prices, the atmosphere of the commodity market is empty, and the rubber price is adjusted back after rising. As of November 17, the spot price of natural rubber fell (full latex 13050 yuan/ton, -250/-1.88%; No. 20 Thai standard 1490 US dollars/ton, -30/-1.97%, equivalent to 10687 yuan/ton; No. 20 Thai Mix 12200 yuan/ton, -150/-1.21%).

The supply side remains positive

Thailand production area: The overall precipitation in Thailand has increased compared with the previous period, the northeast rubber cutting work has little impact, the raw material output shows a slight increase trend, the southern stage precipitation, the amount of rubber production is still too small, the actual purchase price of raw materials is higher than the market price. Raw material prices are expected to strengthen, overseas offers are rising, but compared with sales and raw material prices, the production profit of the processing plant is still a loss state, the quantity is small and the price is high, the factory is not enthusiastic about the acquisition of high raw material prices, and the shipment is mainly traded in far months. It is expected that Thailand’s glue production will decrease by 20% in the year, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to the raw material output of Thailand’s Wang period in the later period.

Yunnan production area: The purchase price of raw materials in Yunnan production area is strong. During the week, the precipitation in Yunnan producing area is less, and the raw materials are in a tight state. I heard that the amount coming in from Myanmar and Laos at Banna Port has been greatly reduced, and the reason for the reduction is that many of them have been made into finished products, and the amount of finished products is not much, and many of the goods out are in the arbitrage traders. Some processing plants said that the start of work within the week was halved, but also subject to the reduction of raw material supply.

Hainan production area: The purchase price of raw materials in Hainan production area is adjusted steadily. At present, the price of raw materials remains relatively high, and the enthusiasm of glue farmers is good, but most of the producing areas are still rainy during the week, which affects the promotion of rubber cutting work. Heard that at the end of the week, the daily amount of glue collected on the island is roughly more than 3,000 tons, slightly reduced from the beginning of the week, the overall supply of glue is insufficient, unable to meet the normal production needs of various processing plants, some private factories actually receive glue prices of 13100-13300 yuan, the high price is about 13400 yuan. Trading in the concentrated milk spot market is relatively active during the week, and with the arrival of winter, processing plants have increased their enthusiasm for rubber collection and production. Recently, there is more precipitation in Hainan production area, and the temperature has dropped, there is a certain possibility of early cutting, short-term domestic demand to pay close attention to and follow up the production of raw materials in the production area.

This week, the capacity utilization rate of China’s semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 78.88%, +0.19% month-on-month and +11.18% year-on-year. This week, the capacity utilization rate of China’s all-steel tire sample enterprises was 63.89%, 0.32% month-on-month and +0.74% year-on-year. The overall shipment of semi-steel tire sample enterprises slowed down slightly, and the inventory of finished products rose slightly. The inventory of all steel tire sample enterprises continued to increase, and under the sales pressure, the capacity utilization rate of individual enterprises from the main control production drag sample enterprises was slightly lower.

Look inside the atmosphere heats up

From November 16 to November 23, 2023, the proportion of “bullish”, “bearish” and “stable” in the trend survey was 42.0%, 25.9% and 42.0%, respectively. From the perspective of monitoring the market mentality this week, the supply side, domestic producing areas are about to stop cutting at the end of the month, and there is production reduction news in major producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam in foreign producing areas, making raw material prices relatively strong; The production and sales margin of downstream tire enterprises at the demand end is slowing down; At the end of the inventory, Qingdao inventory continued to decrease, dark glue continued to go to storage, and light colored glue began to accumulate stock; The current macro atmosphere is warm, but the overall or high fall in the later period may be willing to wait is the main reason for the forecast of the natural rubber market mentality and stability.

It is expected that there is still room for short-term gains

It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market still has room for a small rise. The market has realized the concerns about the amount of raw materials in the previous Thailand production area, and the domestic production area is about to enter the stop-cutting period, the low stock of raw materials in the factory, the insufficient profit of upstream processing still has a pressure on the amount of rubber production, and the superimposed Qingdao inventory continues to go to the warehouse, and the rubber price still has room to rise. The demand side gradually entered the off-season at the end of the year, the terminal replacement demand weakened, the inventory of finished products of enterprises was exhausted, the construction of enterprises was still expected to weaken, the enthusiasm of raw material replenishment was pressed, and the upward drive of the spot market was limited. It is expected that the spot price of full latex in the Shanghai market next week will run within the range of 13100-13350 yuan/ton; The spot price of Thailand is running in the range of 12300-12450 yuan/ton.