The customs announced the import and export data for November. Among them, the monthly export in November increased by 21.1% year-on-year, the expected value was 12%, and the previous value increased by 11.4%, which continued to be better than market expectations.
The core reason for this round of high export growth: the epidemic has impacted overseas production capacity, and overseas orders have been significantly shifted to China.
In fact, the domestic export growth rate has continued to improve with the restart of the domestic economy since May, especially since the fourth quarter. The export growth rate increased to 11.4% in October and 21.1 in November. %, a new high since February 2018 (at the time it was due to trade frictions rushing to export).

The core reason for the current high export growth is that the epidemic has impacted overseas production capacity, and overseas orders have been substantially transferred to China.

Many people think that overseas demand is recovering, but it is not.

To make an analogy (the data below are just examples, not actual data):

Before the epidemic, the demand for overseas home appliances was 100, and the production capacity was 60, so my country needs to provide 40 (100-60), in other words, the export demand is 40;
When the epidemic is coming, the demand for overseas home appliances has dropped to 70, but the impact on production capacity is actually more serious because factories are closed. If the production capacity is reduced to 10, then my country needs to provide 60 (70-10), and export demand is 60.

So at first everyone thought that the overseas epidemic would significantly reduce my country’s export demand, but in fact, due to the more serious impact of overseas production capacity, many orders can only be transferred to China.

This is the main reason why the overseas epidemic continues, but export demand has rebounded sharply.

Judging from the high growth of this round of exports and the sustainability of export growth, this round of high overseas demand will continue at least until the first quarter of next year.