The market continues to doubt the implementation of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts, and international oil prices have fallen for six consecutive working days, but the decline has narrowed. As of December 7, WTI crude oil futures $69.34 / barrel, Brent crude oil futures $74.05 / barrel, both fell to the low point since June 28.

International crude oil prices fell sharply this week, as of December 7, WTI crude oil futures fell 10.94% from November 29, Brent crude oil futures fell 10.89% over the same period. After the OPEC+ meeting, the market’s doubts about voluntary production cuts continued to fermentation, which became the main factor weighing on oil prices. Second, inventories of refined products in the United States are building up, and the outlook for fuel demand remains poor, putting pressure on oil prices. In addition, on December 7, the United States released mixed economic data, China Customs released crude oil imports and other related data, the market assessment of the global economy and supply and demand performance, cautious mood has increased. Specifically:

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week as demand for jobs cooled and the labor market continued to slow gradually. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 in the week ended Dec. 2, Labor Department data showed on Thursday. That suggests the labor market is slowing. The report showed there were 1.34 job openings for every unemployed person in October, the lowest level since August 2021. Demand for labor is cooling along with the economy, dampened by rising interest rates. Therefore, the Fed’s prediction of the end of this round of interest rate hikes has resurfaced in the financial market, and the probability of not raising interest rates in December is more than 97%, and the impact of interest rate hikes on oil prices has weakened. But at the same time, concerns about the U.S. economy and slowing demand also dampened the trading atmosphere in the futures market.

The latest EIA data released this week shows that while U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are down, Cushing crude oil, gasoline, and distillates are all in storage status. In the week of December 1, Cushing crude oil inventories of 29.551 million barrels, an increase of 6.60% from the previous week, rising for 7 consecutive weeks. Gasoline inventories rose for three straight weeks to 223.604 million barrels, up 5.42 million barrels from the previous week, as imports rose and exports fell. Distillate stocks rose for the second straight week to 1120.45 million barrels, up 1.27 million barrels from the previous week, as production rose and net imports increased. Poor fuel demand worries the market, international crude oil prices continue to fall.

Then the next crude oil market, supply side: the holding of the OPEC+ meeting is a double-edged sword, although there is no obvious positive promotion, but the constraints on the supply side still exist. At present, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Algeria have positive statements, trying to reverse the bearish mentality, the subsequent market reaction remains to be seen, the supply tightening pattern has not changed; The overall demand is negative, it is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and the demand for oil products in winter is expected to remain low. In addition, Saudi Arabia cut official sales prices for the region, reflecting a lack of confidence in the outlook for Asian demand. At present, the international oil price has been close to the lowest point of the end of the year 71.84 US dollars/barrel after a continuous decline, the Brent lowest point is near 72 US dollars, five times before the year is around this point to rebound. Therefore, oil prices continue to decline or more limited, there is a bottoming out rebound opportunity. After the continuous decline in oil prices, oil producers have expressed support for the market, and OPEC+ does not rule out new measures to stabilize the market, and oil prices have the possibility of bottoming out.