As of December 15, the profit trend of different raw materials polyethylene as a whole showed an upward trend, and the profit of ethylene in the five types of processes increased the most, from +650 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; Followed by coal and oil profits at the beginning of the month +212 yuan/ton and +207 yuan/ton to -77 yuan/ton and 812 yuan/ton; Finally, methanol profit and ethane profit, from +120 yuan/ton and +112 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton and 719 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Among them, methanol and ethylene production profit from negative to positive. Coal profit and ethane profit increased by 34.21% and 18.45% from the beginning of the month.

First of all, the ethylene process path profit has risen significantly, by the beginning of the month the main production enterprise load increase, superposition supporting downstream devices have different degrees of load reduction or parking, upstream shipments increased, downstream users of raw material inventory is relatively high, the demand for spot sluggish, making the field in a situation of oversupply. After the high stock of raw materials and the increase in cost pressure on the two aspects, the downstream purchase intention of ethylene is depressed, and the focus of market negotiations is lower. Therefore, the cost of ethylene production path followed the decline, as of 15th, the cost was 7660 yuan/ton, which was -6.13% from the beginning of the month.

In terms of coal process path, the strongest cold wave recently swept most areas of our country this winter, in the case of a sudden drop in heavy snow, the market is not out of stock panic, the origin price is even falling, the real rise only freight. The cold wave has not significantly boosted the price performance of the production area, the price continues the relatively flat quotation rhythm of coal last week, when the snow melts, the price will be in the production area/logistics front to the warehouse and the cold wave to the south to launch a game. Coal cost month-on-month -0.77% at 7308 yuan/ton.

In terms of oil process path, recent international oil prices have been mixed, and the negative reason is that the market’s concerns about the demand outlook still exist. The positive reason for the US commercial crude oil inventories fell much more than expected, combined with the Federal Reserve hinted at three interest rate cuts next year. At present, international oil prices have again approached the lowest point in the year, and the weak atmosphere has not been completely eliminated. The aftershocks of the OPEC+ meeting combined with pressure from a weaker demand outlook were the main factors. However, this year, $70- $72 is still a relatively solid bottom for Brent, and it is expected that oil prices still have room to repair upward. The current oil production cost is 8277 yuan/ton, which is -2.46% from the beginning of the month.