Guide: after the polypropylene futures fall below 6800 yuan/ton in late may, the market enters the long period of the strong pattern; The reversal of the market is partly due to the concentration of the weak, which makes the market not have a second fall. Second, in the second quarter, the policy positive news frequency, to a certain degree of the investor mentality, makes the market easy to rise and difficult to fall. In combination, the increase of polypropylene is not a single factor, but the overall choice of the market.

First: crude oil took the lead in pulling up the cost support to provide support for the rising market

The high fuel demand in the summer rush hour is the same as shown in the chart, which is supported by high oil, which is supported by high oil, which is difficult to directly affect the fluctuation of the price of polypropylene and the change of supply and demand, and the increase in the market atmosphere, which makes the polypropylene market difficult to fall.

Second: macroeconomic policy news is positive for further stimulus

The traditional demand of the Chinese, the traditional demand of the traditional Chinese, and the more economic stimulus policies in the various departments of the traditional Chinese, showed the domestic stability risk and the steady expectation, and the policy has been introduced in the background, and the market is optimistic about the future market.

Third: supply and demand are the core of the price of low inventory and demand recovery

Since 2023, “Where did the inventory go” has been a thorn in the heart of the industry practitioners, clearly the downstream construction continues to decline, why does the market hold the low stock intention always maintain the trend of storage? In fact, the reason, or in the overall pattern of the market to find clues. Under the background of strong production, the downstream scale of polypropylene is also in the stage of continuous expansion, BOPP added 7 production lines in the first half of this year, the expansion can reach 310,000 tons/year, the plastic knitting market is also the same, the new capacity and expansion capacity such as the river, the release of new capacity is bound to affect the original supply and demand pattern, making the market start decline phenomenon; However, this does not explain the decline in the digestion capacity of the supply, nor can it become a judging factor for the price of the industry.

Overall, the polypropylene market pull up or with the cost and policy support is inseparable, but it may be the choice of supply and demand pattern. As of August 2023, the new production capacity of polypropylene in the year reached 2.95 million tons/year, but the two oil inventories reached a decline of -9.49%, which is enough to show that there is a strong supply digestion capacity of polypropylene downstream, and the arrival of gold nine silver ten, the demand season is expected to further stimulate market sentiment fermentation, so that the market has such feedback. In the future, the choice of the futures market or earlier than the spot market, the current spot has obvious weakness with the rise, the weakening of the basis or the further strengthening of the price, it is recommended that the industry pay attention to the market feedback and inventory digestion after the policy landing, inventory or known as the leading indicator of the next trend of polypropylene prices.