This month, PP prices showed a downward trend, at the beginning of the Sino-US relations there are signs of easing, a number of positive support for the market, the valuation side of the repair, coal prices hit a new high, coal chemical performance continues to be stronger than oil chemical. In the process of the board rebound, the price follows slowly, the basis quickly weakens, and the demand is generally traded. At the end of the month, the oil price fell sharply, the disk valuation was on the high side, and the short-term superposition could not confirm the supply reduction expectations of the bulls, and the disk declined rapidly. Weak oil prices against the strong macro, PP long-short confrontation, the short-term trend turned short, the support level moved down to near the previous low, there is inertia decline, but there is no chasing short value.

From the inventory changes:

Within the cycle, the spot offer fluctuates in a narrow range, entering the off-season of consumption, market trading is flat, the inventory of production enterprises is slow to go, the inventory of production enterprises within the cycle rose in a narrow range compared with the previous period, the enthusiasm of downstream factories to receive goods is worse, and middlemen enter the mid-month assessment, the inventory is difficult to increase, and the inventory in some areas is rising. December is the traditional consumption off-season, from the seasonal point of view of previous years, December is the lowest point of the annual inventory, middlemen and downstream factories will reduce inventory this month, return funds, for the upcoming Spring Festival consumption peak and the next year to reserve energy, so it is expected that in December domestic PP main production enterprises and traders inventory or will slow down.

From the maintenance situation:

This week, the early troubleshooting device was restarted, and the maintenance loss of domestic polypropylene equipment fell slightly; Affected by the failure of some devices in the short term to start and stop, superimposed on Ningbo Jinfa second-line new devices, the starting load is not high, and the negative loss of domestic polypropylene devices has increased. Overall, the loss of domestic polypropylene equipment this week still increased compared with last week. In the later stage, with the troubleshooting device running in a short period of time, the maintenance loss of domestic polypropylene equipment will fall slightly. However, in the medium and long term, the annual maintenance plan of domestic polypropylene equipment in December has basically ended, although some devices are stopped and repaired due to cost and other factors, but the maintenance loss is still low throughout the year. Therefore, the overall loss is expected to fall to around 180,000 tons next week. Concern about temporary parking devices.

From the perspective of demand changes:

Polypropylene downstream average operating rate of 55.65%, down last week, year-on-year improvement. Due to the recent PP trend continues to be poor, the spot correction, the terminals are following up poor, most downstream industry orders fell, industry starts also have varying degrees of decline, but PP non-woven due to weather and other factors, the demand situation is OK, industry starts rose slightly.

Future prediction:

In December, the e-commerce platform and many holiday activities of the shopping season, the flexible packaging industry improved, factories on demand production, prices in the process of decline in the downstream acceptance point price increase, downstream centralized replenishment, midstream inventory continuous de-stocking will support the price, it is estimated that the end of November to early December prices to maintain a weak rebound trend, Macro marginal weakening and fundamental pressure at the same time on the market, superimposed the impact of the exchange rate, short-term look at the full month spot rebound is not large.