This month, the polypropylene market with the introduction of various policies, a resonance rising market, the disk in the expected boost and short-term supply and demand slightly narrowed the support of the rebound, but the spot with the increase in general. On the demand side, the macro good release, the real demand recovery still needs more time to observe, the current demand is in the off-season, the short-term is not easy to be overly optimistic, although there is disk sentiment support, but the monthly trend has not changed much. The sustainability and height of the rally brought about by the improvement in demand are relatively limited. Therefore, the short-term PP rebound is highly or cautiously, and the bearish view is maintained after the rebound.

In June, the total output of polypropylene in China was 2,603,800 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons compared with May, +1.68% month-on-month, +7.40% year-on-year. Within the month, the second phase of the giant Zhengyuan officially started mass production, Donghua Maoming continued to postpone, Anqing Petrochemical 300,000 tons/year polypropylene device on the 22nd commissioning test, officially sold in July. With the economic return of some devices, the maintenance devices have been restarted successively, and the market supply has increased slightly from May.

In July, the planned maintenance equipment includes Zhongke Refining and chemical first line, Donghua Energy (Zhangjiagang), etc., and the driving equipment includes Daqing Petrochemical, Luoyang Petrochemical second line, Yan ‘an Refinery, Shanghai Secco, Daqing Hading, Daqing Refining and chemical second line, etc. July is the traditional consumption season for polypropylene, and the current polypropylene market is supported by the macro level, polypropylene prices are rising, production enterprises’ profit margins are expanding, and the willingness to overhaul is reduced. Therefore, it is expected that the maintenance loss of domestic polypropylene equipment will fall in July. Pay attention to the temporary stop maintenance equipment.

At present, the downstream is still in the seasonal off-season, the continuity of demand is not good, and the finished product is difficult to maintain. The current low level of raw material inventory, and real estate policy short-term speculation, the future demand to form support, is about to enter July, the peak season before the purchase to give the market improvement expectations, the second half of the year belongs to the active stage of consumption, automobiles, home appliances exports and domestic demand is still strong, is expected to support high fusion copolymerization demand in the short term, pre-high fusion copolymerization basis shock is strong, need to pay attention to order changes.

In July, the recent profit repair of production enterprises, the acceleration of the probability of new devices, the maintenance of stock devices is low, and the supply pressure gradually appeared. On the policy side, the real estate side continues to have vague news stimulus, superimposed again interest rate cut news burst, under the weak economic data, the game on the policy side will form a certain support for prices in the short term, considering the fundamentals of PP, the weak reality leads to limited space above the price, and short-term continued shocks. In the medium term, the market still needs lower prices to balance the contradiction between new capacity and weak demand, so the short-term volatility continues.