As crude oil closed higher overnight, domestic gasoline and diesel prices once again opened a new round of rise, in the afternoon in some areas, the main unit of gasoline and diesel has two or even three adjustments to rise, and diesel began to have a limited sales strategy. Recently, the demand for petrol has been supported by the increase in the number of summer trips and air conditioning oil, but diesel has continued to be subject to the rainfall in the North and the South, and the demand has not improved significantly.

According to Longzhong data monitoring, from the above two tables, at the beginning of August this year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose from the beginning of July, gasoline rose between 45-367 yuan/ton, Shandong has the smallest increase; The increase of diesel in various places is 713-946 yuan/ton, and the increase is larger in all places, and the increase of diesel is larger than that of gasoline.

After several rounds of pushing up, the specific reasons are roughly the following:

1. Rising international crude oil prices

From the beginning of July to the beginning of August, Saudi Arabia and Russia released further production cuts, and the peak of fuel consumption in the United States and Asian economic prospects are expected to be better, and the decline in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States is supported by good news, and international crude oil prices have fluctuated upward. As of August 3, Brent closed at $85.14 / BBL, up $10.49 / BBL or 14.05% from the beginning of July.

2.the domestic gasoline and diesel export profit is high

According to Longzhong data monitoring, taking the South China port as an example, from mid-to-late June this year, the domestic gasoline and diesel export arbitrage window has been opened one after another. As of August 3, the profit of China’s gasoline exports to Singapore was 183 yuan/ton, up 322.48% from mid-June; Diesel export profit was 708 yuan/ton, up 319.08% from mid-June.

With the increase of domestic gasoline and diesel export profits, the market is expected to export additional exports, and some of the main units in July to open, in early July, some of the main in East China 92# gasoline prices 8380 yuan/ton, to August 3, the price rose to 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton or 3.82%; The price of imported diesel rose from 6,860 yuan/ton to 7,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 890 yuan/ton or 12.97%. As the main units began to collect steam and diesel, some middlemen actually followed up, the single volume price of gasoline and diesel ships rose, and even the price of crude oil fell in some periods, but the price of gasoline and diesel rose instead of falling.

3, market operators pay attention to export quotas

Up to now, China’s Ministry of Commerce has issued two batches of refined oil export quotas this year, totaling 27.99 million tons. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of refined oil products in China was 20.3883 million tons. If the imported refined oil products under overseas bonded supervision were removed, the actual export volume was 20.2729 million tons, the export quota completion rate was 72.43%, and there were 7.717,100 tons of export quotas to be completed. According to Longzhong information learned from the market, the planned export volume of China’s refined oil products in July and August is 7.02 million tons, if these quantities can be exported, the export quota of China’s refined oil products in January and August is 97.88%, and the quota of two batches is basically used up. At present, domestic gasoline and diesel exports are profitable, the third batch of export quotas is expected to be issued around the middle of this month, do not rule out the possibility of some export entities to add gasoline and diesel exports.

4, domestic maintenance capacity has been reduced, and supply has rebounded, but the impact of supply and demand on the market has weakened

In August, China’s main refinery maintenance scale continued to decline, according to Longzhong information statistics, in August only Daqing refining and chemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical two main refinery maintenance, involving maintenance capacity or 700,000 tons, less than July 1.4 million tons, a decline of 66%. According to data estimates, the total oil yield of main refineries in August is expected to rise to 61.3%, up 0.75% from the previous month. The ratio continued to fall back to 1.02. The yield of gasoline and jet fuel increased for five consecutive months, and the yield of diesel oil fell for three consecutive months. Therefore, it is expected that the planned output of steam, diesel and coal in the main refinery in August is 11.02 million tons, 11.27 million tons and 5.01 million tons, respectively, which is +4.39%, -0.68% and +7.92%.

In August, the maintenance capacity of independent refineries did not change much, and it is expected to involve 2.27 million tons of maintenance capacity, an increase of 50,000 tons from July, an increase of 2.25%. Mainly because the refineries overhauled in July, such as Xintai Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye and other refineries, and Lanqiao Petrochemical, Wudi Xinyue, Dalian Jinyuan, Xinhai Shihua, etc. will be opened one after another in early August, which will offset the capacity of Baolai Petrochemical plant overhaul in August. On the whole, domestic refined oil production is expected to increase in August, among which, gasoline production increased month-on-month, and diesel production is not expected to change much.

On the whole, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices have continued to rise, mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices, high export profits, the market is expected to increase the export volume, and “gold nine silver ten” is coming, the market has to do inventory operations in advance, and the early diesel prices are relatively low, and the market operation enthusiasm is relatively high compared to gasoline. Retail prices are expected to rise next week, and the crude oil news is still strong support, it is expected that with the export quota issued, the gasoline and diesel market may continue to push up.