Lead: Since September, the domestic propylene oxide market as a whole has shown a steady upward trend, at the beginning of the month, all parties in the market with optimism about the “gold nine” peak season, the market has continued to rise and rise, but rose to 9550-9670 yuan/ton (Shandong spot exchange factory), the market has turned stalemate, to a certain extent, hit the confidence of the industry, last weekend after the appropriate decline in cyC, by the cost of the obvious pull, The market quickly stopped falling and ushered in another round of upward market, as of September 15, to 9650-9750 yuan/ton, reaching the high point in the second half of the year, and the overall growth slowed down.

 First, the supply side capacity utilization rate has shown a trend of recovery

In mid-early September, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic propylene oxide market has always been maintained at a low level of about 60%-65%, and many devices such as Jincheng Petrochemical, Taixing Yida, Wanhua Phase I, Tianjin Bohua are in a parking state, coupled with the short-term maintenance and reduction of large capacity devices such as Xinyue and Jiahong, etc., the market supply is limited, and the price has also played a certain support.

 Last week, Xinyue and Jiahong successively raised negative operation, combined with the restart of Wanhua phase I device, to September 15, the industry capacity utilization rate increased to 71.50%, an increase of 5.79 percentage points compared with the beginning of the month, the daily production growth of 0.1 million tons, while East China has US dollar and Zhejiang petrochemical ship cargo offer to the port, the local spot has a certain supplement.

 In the follow-up, there is no fluctuation plan for many on-site devices, and Jincheng Petrochemical began to sell hydrogen peroxide, but its 300,000 / year HPPO device is not yet clearly expected to restart, continue to pay attention to the overall supply is expected to be stable before the holiday.

 Second, raw materials are high continued to rise significantly

From the cost point of view, last week, the main raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine in the chlorohydrin method have significantly increased, which has reached the highest level in the year, although the price of cyclopropylene has also risen to a certain extent, but the growth rate is not as fast as the cost, and the loss degree is further expanded compared with the beginning of the month, in this round of upward market, the positive effect on the price is strong, and the HPPO process, because the price of common raw materials propylene has risen. Hydrogen peroxide is calculated according to the theoretical device cost, and the cost difference between the two processes is reduced, but the hydrogen peroxide price continues to rise strongly, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it affects some HPPO processes to adjust the load of their own cyclopropyl device and sell hydrogen peroxide abroad.

 This week, propylene and liquid chlorine are expected to consolidate at a high level, and it is expected that under the pre-holiday partial replenishment market, there is still some support for the cycloC market.

 Third, the demand side of the incremental limited wait-and-see high price cautious

In terms of downstream demand, the performance of polyether end new orders in the “gold nine” peak season is still satisfactory but not up to expectations, compared with the market in July-August, there is no significant improvement, after watching CIC bottomed out last week, the downstream new single increment is limited in continuity, mostly based on the delivery of early orders, and after watching CIC high prices, the buying rhythm is generally slowed down. The propylene glycol industry is generally profitable, and the device fluctuates more, and the impact is limited.

In the follow-up, there are still two weeks from the 11th holiday, in this round of upward market, some customers have been moderately stocked, and there is still a small amount of demand this week, and the end of the month is approaching the holiday time, and the market is expected to be on holiday one after another.

Fourth, the rise may slow down before the stabilization festival or a narrow range

Conclusion (short term) : Last week, the upward market price rose to a new high point in the second half of the year, and recently, the standoff is expected to return to stability, this week, there is still a small amount of stock demand for polyether end, CIC is expected to be standoff, near the end of the month, the parties support weakening, or there is a slight decline in expectations.

Conclusion (medium and long term) : In October, we should pay attention to the fluctuations of various devices during the holiday, Tianjin Bohua is expected to restart after the holiday, Shandong Jinling may have maintenance expectations, return to a narrow range after the stock is prepared, and Shell maintenance in the second half of the year, pay attention to specific developments.

Risk warning: uncertainty of the incremental time node of the device surface; If the cost pressure after the enterprise enthusiasm to start; Demand side actual consumption landing.