Introduction: “Gold nine silver ten” after the November propylene oxide industry chain products into the off-season, the supply side still has some maintenance and negative dynamics, but the demand side performance is cold, after the downward transmission is blocked, the raw material end of the cyc market gradually pressure, the market stalemate is weak, this weekend Shandong spot factory prices fell again to 9000 yuan/ton mark; After reaching this price, the downstream moderate follow-up purchase is expected to slow down temporarily.

First, the supply side narrow fluctuation HPPO device dynamic attention

Supply cut off the current capacity utilization rate to maintain 65% hovering, Yida, Jincheng parking did not open, China Sea Shell phase II continued maintenance state, North Jinling, Huatai have parking maintenance, but during the parking period there are more inventory sold, did not affect the supply of limited reduction effect, coupled with the early shipment is not good, the supplier in the production plant more than a certain pressure, Recently, prices have eased slightly.

Follow-up, Jinling restart and recovery this weekend, the rest of the shrinkage is expected, the domestic propylene oxide market supply is abundant, a single set or small-scale capacity shrinkage impact is limited, but two sets of large-scale HPPO devices, the cost pressure, coupled with upstream raw materials and the impact of the Panama Canal, concerned about whether it will stop in December or have a certain impact on the market.

Second, the cost side remains strong. Each process is under pressure

From the cost point of view, the price of raw material propylene has recently fluctuated at 7,000 yuan/ton, although the price of liquid chlorine has fallen from the beginning of the month, it can still maintain 300-400 yuan/ton of positive price operation, the overall cost has remained good, but although the current process is still under pressure, the stable raw material end is weak to promote the market support less than the previous propylene, liquid chlorine strong upward stage.

Follow-up, the price of propylene has fallen over the weekend, liquid chlorine temporarily look stable, after the current price of cyclopropylene reached 9000 yuan/ton mark, the downstream to see the cost, moderate purchase and follow up, but whether it can continue to wait for the feedback of terminal orders, while paying attention to the propylene price of HPPO process cost.

Third, the demand side of the market cold buying just need to follow up

In terms of downstream demand, the overall cold in November continued to market, polyether industry compared to gold nine silver ten new orders significantly weaker, this week has inverted market, raw material end cost cyC fluctuation is limited, but the end customer feedback is insufficient, polyether industry is also subject to the system, some factories high finished product inventory to buy cyC only to maintain normal production just need, it is difficult to have effective volume. From the point of view of the rest of the industry, under the current state of poor profit and loss of propylene glycol, multi-plant parking and maintenance, purchasing in the production plant is more limited, and the rhythm is slow and difficult to support cyclopropylene.

The demand side of the off-season feedback is limited, the current wait-and-see CIC market price volatility has narrowed, the buying node is scattered, but the risk of reaching the 9000 yuan/ton mark is relatively low, and there are more moderate follow-up.

Fourth, the end of the off-season consolidation price narrow fluctuations

Conclusion (short-term) : After the market falls back to the threshold, the downstream demand side will follow up with more purchases over the weekend, but during the period, the end customer is difficult to have obvious feedback, and the market needs to wait for the new downstream orders on Monday after a short-term slowdown.

Conclusion (medium and long term) : From November to December at the end of the year, the market supply and demand are expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, the cost side or timely support the market to ensure the bottom line, it is expected that the price of cyC is maintained in the range of 8900-9300 yuan/ton, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is a negative dynamic of stopping and falling of large devices under cost pressure. And pay attention to the production progress of new devices such as Ruiheng New Materials (Sinochem Yangnong), Wanhua Chemical, Lihua Yiweiyuan and Sinochem Tianchen.

Risk warning: uncertainty of the incremental time node of the device surface; If the cost pressure after the enterprise enthusiasm to start; Demand side actual consumption landing.