Since the National Day, the international crude oil and Singapore kerosene market have been running in a downward trend. Mainly weak fuel demand in the United States, combined with the gloomy macroeconomic outlook, the formation of crude oil demand drag; The Israeli-Palestinian conflict did not pose an immediate threat to crude supplies, and traders took profits. Although Europe, the United States and some parts of Asia began to purchase kerosene for heating needs, due to the weak crude oil market, Singapore kerosene prices fell in line with the volatility (as shown in the chart below). As of November 9, Brent closed at $80.01 / barrel, down $15.3 / barrel or 16.05% from the end of September; Kerosene prices in Singapore closed at $102.1 a barrel, down $21.43 or 17.35% from the end of September.

Domestic routes and international routes have recovered to varying degrees this year, domestic routes have recovered relatively quickly, while international routes continued to rise slightly after the increase in domestic routes in the second half of the year, especially in September this year.

According to the statistics of the Civil Aviation Administration, the total turnover of civil aviation transport in September this year was 10.7 billion tons kilometers, down 7.84% from the previous month and up 123.38% year on year. The total turnover of civil aviation transport from January to September this year was 86.82 billion tonne-kilometers, up 84.25% year-on-year and down 10.11% year-on-year in 2019. From January to September this year, the total turnover of civil aviation transport recovered to 89.89% of that in 2019. Among them, the total turnover of domestic flight transportation has recovered to 207.41% of the same period in 2022 and 104.64% of the same period in 2019; International flights recovered to 138.29% for the same period in 2022 and 63.31% for the same period in 2019. After reaching 3 billion tonne-kilometers in August this year, international flight transport turnover continued to increase slightly in September, reaching 3.12 billion tonne-kilometers. Overall, the total turnover of domestic flight transportation from January to September this year has far exceeded the level of 2022, and international flights continue to recove

According to Longzhong data monitoring, civil aviation kerosene consumption in September this year is estimated to be 300.14 million tons, down 7.84% month-on-month, up 123.38% year on year. Civil aviation kerosene consumption from January to September this year is estimated at 24.6530 million tons, up 84.25% year-on-year and down 11.53% year-on-year in 2019. Although civil aviation kerosene consumption declined in September this year from the previous month, it rose sharply year-on-year, but it has not yet recovered to the level of 2019.

Entering November, according to the latest news, starting from 0:00 on November 5 (the date of issue), the new domestic route fuel charging standard is: the fuel surcharge of 60 yuan per passenger in the following segments of 800 kilometers (including), and the fuel surcharge of 110 yuan per passenger in the segment of more than 800 kilometers. The fuel surcharge adjustment is the first reduction after the “three consecutive rises” in 2023, and the collection standard fell by 10 yuan and 20 yuan respectively from October, and the cost of people’s travel has declined.

Entering November, there is no domestic holiday support, it is expected that business will appear and some travel support, and domestic routes may continue to fall slightly. With the increase of international flights, international routes are expected to still have room to rise.