November came to an end, new material PE continued to shock downward; Downstream demand tightening, limited release; The mentality of the regeneration industry is also affected by negative factors and constantly changing, but the recycling PE cargo situation and the price grain is difficult to move, which is not conducive to the trading behavior of the regeneration industry.

First, macro support passivation new material PE shock decline

The polyethylene market is fully digested from the strong support of the macro side, but there is no further good lead, the cost support continues to loosen, the polyethylene market returns to the bearish fundamentals, and the market price rises and falls. Downstream factories just need to still exist, with the decline in market prices, downstream factories to make up for the low stock, production enterprise inventory and social sample warehouse inventory are slightly down, the polyethylene market began to gradually build a bottom.

PE prices of new materials continue to decline, the price difference between new and old materials continues to narrow, as of November 24, the price difference between new and old materials has fallen out of 1200 yuan/ton, and under the macro negative pressure, the price difference between new and old materials will continue to narrow, further suppress the flow of recycled particles.

Second, downstream start and start stop-start purchase with orders for the mainstream

Recycled PE downstream product start-up diagram

This week, there are differences in the operating rate of agricultural film enterprises in various regions of the country. Among them, the operating rate of enterprises in Northeast and North China fell between 1%-5%, mainly because of the cold air in Northeast China earlier, the end of the shed film season is earlier than other regions, and the operating rate in North China declined slightly. In East China, South China, Central China, Northwest and Southwest China, the operating rate of enterprises increased between 1% and 5%.

According to the current market situation, 61.40% of agricultural film enterprises still hold a stable mentality on the linear price, and believe that the waand-see mentality of terminal enterprises is strong, and the accumulated orders of agricultural film begin to reduce, the upstream support is weakened, and the price of raw materials is mainly stable in the later stage. 31.58% of agricultural film enterprises hold a bearish mentality on linear prices, believing that the wait-and-see mentality of terminal enterprises is strong, and the accumulated orders of agricultural film begin to decrease, the upstream support is weakened, and the price of raw materials is mainly stable in the later stage. 7.02% of agricultural film enterprises hold a bullish attitude on linear prices, that the overall decline in agricultural film production is not obvious, there is still support for raw material demand, and polyethylene prices have a small space for exploration. In summary, most downstream products enterprises hold a stable view of the afternoon market, which is conducive to the downstream trading behavior of the afternoon market, and can give certain support to recycled particles.

Third, the negative leading regeneration industry mentality is unstable

At present, the regeneration field, bearish sentiment spread, bearish support is relatively thin, Xiaobian in the regeneration PE industry market mentality forecast, 39.97% look at the mentality to see stability, 50.86% mentality bearish, 8.63% appropriate bullish. Under the off-season atmosphere, the procurement of raw materials by downstream products factories has declined significantly, and the price of new materials PE has fluctuated downward, although the price difference between new and old materials is still in the range of more than 1,000 yuan per ton, but the price difference between new and old materials is insufficient in the future market, and the price difference between new and old materials will continue to narrow. The domestic and foreign economic recovery is slow, the off-season downstream product factory orders may be more difficult to find, the construction is not high on the procurement of raw materials is weak. Based on the above reasons, the regeneration industry has a bearish attitude towards the future market.

In summary, the recent upsurge in the field, all parties to the industrial chain have large or small changes, but the regeneration business is more cautious, coupled with the support of the cost side, the regeneration particle business more stable operation, the future market will continue to stabilize the market, the speed of goods is slow. Fujian high pressure white pass primary particle mainstream reference 6200-6300 yuan/ton, Hebei low pressure Wahaha ordinary crushing material mainstream reference 4400 yuan/ton, Hebei high pressure white pass primary particle mainstream reference price 6100-6300 yuan/ton, Hebei Wahaha white particle mainstream reference price 5900-6000 yuan/ton, Juxian EVA granulation mainstream reference price 6000-6200 yuan/ton.