Domestic soda ash production declining this week, hubei double-ring load down, the current nissan 2000-2200 tons, the light weight alkali downstream industry cost pressure, reduced demand for soda ash, heavy alkali performance is good, but the current soda company delivery is relatively poor, market instability, weakness of the downstream market, the market mentality is not positive, to be bearish on afternoon.
At present, light alkali 1700, heavy alkali 1800, the market atmosphere is not good, downstream demand is general, it is expected to be weak finishing, consolidation operation in Central China, in the region, light alkali 1450-1650 yuan/ton, heavy alkali 1650-1800 yuan/ton.Wait-and-see, light market, south China market consolidation operation, South China light alkali factory 1750, heavy alkali 1950, the firm price is low, the market is flat, the short-term trend is expected to be weak and stable.
Operation rate analysis
This week the operating rate of soda enterprises has increased compared with last week, the operating rate within the week is around 77.91%, the domestic price of soda has been running smoothly, the current production limit of soda enterprises has been formed, but the overall demand for soda is still weak, the game between supply and demand intensifies, the market price rise is difficult to continue.It is expected that the operating rate of soda will be improved steadily in the later period, the production of soda will be increased gradually, and the sluggish market will continue to intensify.
Inventory analysis
Weekly domestic soda inventory is still in continuous growth, in the middle of the domestic total inventory reached 118.27, compared to the beginning of 23,900 tons, an increase of 24.29%, inventory deactivation is slow, and the operation rate of enterprises to resume high-speed running state, soda industry conference proposed to limit production 20-30%, some enterprises have joined the pace.Single domestic soda market demand is still weak, supply and demand is in a stalemate, it is expected that the recent demand reduction of soda soda market supply and demand contradiction intensifies.
Import and export analysis
According to customs statistics, in September 2020, soda ash imports in China is 0.4723 tons, accumulative total imports of 205329.13 tons, September import amount is $05700, accumulative total import amount is $31.1496 million, September import average price of $12042.76 / ton, accumulative total import average price of $151.71 / ton, imports fell 98% and imports fell 99.98% year on year, accumulative total imports by 110.31% than the same period last year.
Customs statistics, in September 2020, China’s exports soda ash is 116871.00 tons, total exports of 1107057.67 tons, the export amount of $2018103.5 in September, accumulative total export amount of dollars, exports in September average price of $172.68 / ton, accumulative total export average price of $167.80 / ton, exports fell 39.64%, exports by 10.20%, compared to the total imports by 5.46% than the same period last year.
Domestic mainstream enterprise quotation
This week, the factory price of soda ash enterprises is relatively stable, the current soda ash price is in a stable stage, inventory is rising level.Downstream demand is slowing and inventory consumption is slow.It is expected that the short – term soda market trend is not good.
Analysis of market influencing factors
Cost: raw salt market supply and demand increased, prices in some regions rose, the market did not change much, manufacturers supply and demand exist game, the market performance is light, negative in the soda ash market.
Supply side: at present, some enterprises have joined the pace of production restriction, Jinshan Mengzhou plant area planned to join the production restriction team at the end of the month, the downstream early performance is weak, the price is high, the downstream market has resistance psychology, procurement is not active, end users are more cautious to look at the market, the enthusiasm of taking goods is not high.Inventory runs are slow.The upstream and downstream game is becoming more and more obvious. In the short term, the stable operation of the quotation of domestic soda manufacturers is the main task, and the transaction center of heavy alkali market is moving down, and the market support is weakened.
Demand side: the recent domestic float glass price stable price movement, the market trading atmosphere is flat, shahe region production and sales are more optimistic.The demand for heavy alkali of float glass and photovoltaic glass will keep a small increase.It is expected that the later demand for soda ash will be deadlocked.Current soda ash is still at the stage to inventory, soda ash factory production and marketing gradually improving, some manufacturers inventory increase gradually, the market supply and demand of stalemate, the market mentality is still weak, later still need to pay attention to upstream and downstream market price movements, enterprise production and capacity utilization, market environment, the weather will affect the price movements, such as short-term soda market will continue to steady state, the follow-up to be seen is required as well.
Market outlook forecast
Comprehensive, soda ash market is not only the high inventory pressures, the regional construction is also unsatisfactory, although some companies limit production can make the output fell, but the actual sales if not solved, balance between supply and demand will again stalemate, the downstream market weakness, traders for resisting the high point of view, the market overall weak direction development.Short – term soda ash market price is expected to run weak.