In 2023, the overall trend of China’s toluene market is strong, and the performance of the toluene market is commendable due to the stable fundamental performance.

In the first quarter, the focus of the toluene market negotiation oscillated upward, and the main favorable support was the stable consumption of the gasoline industry. Specifically, in January, the international crude oil futures oscillated upward, the epidemic policy was loose, and the supply side was opened due to the Daxie disproportionation device, and the toluene external sales volume in East China was reduced by 30,000 tons, and the industry expected the future market to be good, supporting the toluene market to be good. After returning to the city after the Spring Festival holiday in February, despite the port accumulation, the gasoline industry actively bought Shandong region led the country, and East China region followed Shandong; In addition, other downstream industries have been stocking up and starting work, and the port has begun to go to the storage stage, making toluene stable at a high level. In March, due to the sale of toluene cargo by Qingdao Lidong Foreign Trade Co., LTD., the market supply was expected to be tight. And the bankruptcy of European and American banks has a great impact on the mentality of the operators, making the volatility of the toluene market smooth.

The toluene market fell after rising in the second quarter, and the favorable support of the supply side is still online, but the weak demand has significantly suppressed the price. In April, the gasoline industry bought actively, and the price rise in Shandong region led to the price rise in surrounding regions. At the same time, the AsiAn-American arbitrage window opened, and the export of South Korean aromatics products to the United States attracted market attention. From May to June, domestic toluene enterprises entered the centralized maintenance season, and the supply decreased significantly; However, the downstream chemical and gasoline industries are generally performing, and the Asian and American arbitrage export expectations are disappointed, so the supply is temporarily without maintenance. At the same time, the wide oscillation of crude oil and the news of the consumption tax levied on related aromatics products shrouded the market, making the toluene market cautious.

Entering the third quarter of the positive factors concentrated, toluene market prices in the year high continued to refresh. First of all, some aromatic products to levy consumption tax boots landing, superimposed on the gasoline industry consumer demand rise; Secondly, the export window of gasoline and toluene is opened, and the demand increases. Again, the international crude oil futures price rose to the highest price since November 12, 2022, giving the atmosphere of commodity support, and the bottom of the toluene market is well supported.

In the fourth quarter, Shandong Lianyi and Daqing Longjiang Chemical disproportionation units were put into operation, and toluene was used as raw material to produce pure benzene, resulting in a great change in the regional supply and demand situation of toluene, and the price difference between toluene and pure benzene had a significant impact on the start-up of enterprises.

In summary, the toluene market in 2023 shows an upward trend of oscillation under the interweaving of the three main factors of supply, demand and cost formation; The negative factors are not very obvious.