Starting from 2022, the characteristics of the off-peak season of gasoline and diesel are becoming less obvious. The market of “rising above expectations, falling below reality” is common, especially in 2023, when public health events have little impact on the market, this feature is particularly obvious. The trend of the market is not according to the conventional card, and then we predict the market and where to start?

Market trend unconventional in the third quarter of this year and the fourth quarter of the market reflected vividly, looking back to the third quarter, July was the seasonal off-season of diesel, Shandong diesel prices by just need to be poor impact once fell to 6700 yuan/ton, but in mid-July by the short order due delivery of a large number of goods, market mentality boost and peak season expectations driven by prices rose all the way, And the price increase lasted for up to one and a half months. After entering the traditional peak season of “gold nine silver ten”, the price fell all the way, from 8050 yuan/ton in September to the current 7350 yuan/ton, a range of 700 yuan/ton.

Under the unconventional market, from what perspective should we focus on predicting the future market? The fundamentals? A state of mind? Or market news? It’s not consistent for different stages. At this stage, the study of market mentality and market news is more important than the study of fundamentals.

From the current market perspective, fundamentals have become less important. The first is that the good news of the oil and diesel production reduction in the early refinery has been digested in advance, and the market could have used this news to hype a wave, but the price of crude oil did not fall all the way, dousing the fire. The second is that in the inertia of the market industry, the gasoline and diesel market has been oversupplied, and the current design capacity of China’s atmospheric and vacuum has approached 1 billion tons/year, and a production cut of 10%-20% will not cause a tight market supply. Therefore, in this stage of the market, the basic impact on the market has been diluted, and instead, the market is pessimistic, which is more obvious after the crude oil has fallen sharply but the gasoline and diesel have not followed up, and the gasoline and diesel have not followed down in time, which has increased the pessimism of the industry, opening up space for the price to fall again.

When the late market rebound, depends on two aspects, first, wait for crude oil prices to fall in place. At present, the overall fundamentals of crude oil are deteriorating, and the crude oil plate should pay attention to the risk of further downward repair of this wave of gains after July. And the result of the OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 26, the extension of the deadline or a small production cut can continue to support the high volatility of oil prices, but the absolute height is limited, on the contrary, if it begins to gradually increase production to compensate for production, crude oil may face a greater level of downside risk. In short, the negative risk of crude oil has not been released. Second, wait for market sentiment to settle in. If gasoline and diesel prices continue to fall, the gap between gasoline and diesel and crude oil cracking once again fell to a relatively low level, the market pessimism can be released, in order to prepare for the next wave of the market, and the mood brewing in place can have long-term conditions to push up. Personally, it is expected that the next wave of the market will be around mid-December, and this wave of the market will be boosted by the stocking of goods before the end of the negative decline for more than two months.