The correlation coefficient between soda ash price and capacity utilization rate in 2023 is 0.26, which is low correlation. As can be seen from the figure above, the first half of the soda ash construction is relatively high, device maintenance scattered, spot prices fell steadily, mainly the new device is facing production expectations, market sentiment is worried, the price is falling, the market is accompanied by soda ash equipment in the maintenance season, and the new device increment is less than expected, resulting in a rebound in prices. However, in the fourth quarter, the new device has been successfully released and the maintenance has ended, and the spot price is once again in a falling state. From the analysis point of view, the change of capacity utilization rate has a certain impact on the price fluctuation.

Compared with the change of domestic soda ash production and capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2023, the correlation coefficient of the two trends is 0.51, which is a low correlation. From 2019 to 2022, the overall production capacity of soda ash did not fluctuate much, in the period of 2020, affected by the epidemic, demand weakened, soda ash inventory was high, prices fell, enterprises lost money, and some enterprises reduced production, resulting in a decline in production. In 2023, due to the launch of new production capacity in Yuanxing, Inner Mongolia and Jinshan, Henan, the supply side began to show a significant increase in the fourth quarter, so the output increased significantly, with a growth rate of about 11.21%.

The correlation coefficient between domestic soda ash production and average price change from 2019 to 2023 is 0.47, showing a weak correlation. From 2019 to 2020, soda ash prices showed a downward trend, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, the demand declined significantly, the spot price fell, and enterprises successively lowered negative parking; In 2021, with the rise of the photovoltaic industry, the release of new production capacity, and the strong operation of the float glass industry, the demand for soda ash is significantly boosted, and the favorable stimulus of energy consumption dual control in the second half of the year leads to a record high price of soda ash, lucrative profits, and the production of enterprises increases; In 2022, the trend of soda ash is good, the downstream demand performance is increasing, the spot price is rising, the profit is high, and the plant operation rate is high; In 2023, soda ash entered the glide channel, and the large increment of supply dominated. Since the listing of soda ash at the end of 2019, the financial attributes of product operation have been added to it, and the logic of market operation is no longer a simple supply-demand dominance, so the linkage between output and price has been reduced, but the correlation between output and price still exists as a whole.