The recent urea market can be described as surging continuously, the market trend under the guidance of the news surface rise and fall more rapidly, of which the most obvious reaction is to mark. The drive of the printing message surface not only directly affects the current market price, but also penetrates into the domestic supply and demand level in the later period. As of August 15, Shandong Linyi market price at 2550 yuan/ton, urea market after experiencing a wave trend, gradually rose back to the high level in the half month, and the maximum rise and fall range in the nearly half month is about 200 yuan/ton, the impact of the emotional side determines the urea volatility has increased trend, the market has to keep up with the atmosphere fluctuations, How does the news surface work on the market?

With the increase of the game of the market news surface, the emotional side occupies more and more weight in the market influence, and the most obvious force is the judgment of the emotion on the market future. When the news is gradually fermented, the mood is optimistic about the future market, and the internal reaction of the supply and demand side will weaken, and the transmission of the marking message is the most intuitive performance.

Imprint impact:

India is an important exporter of urea in China, and the number of exports to India accounts for about 50% of the domestic annual export volume. According to the 2022 annual export data, the total export volume in 2022 is about 2.83 million tons, of which the first is still India, the export volume is 1.23 million 900 tons, accounting for 43.80% of the total export volume. There are two types of procurement in India: global tender procurement and long-term contract procurement. Among them, global bidding and procurement is our most concerned mark. The reason why the impact of bidding runs through August and September is because of the continuous spread of market rumors to the opening of bids in India, and then to the market news, and finally to the deadline of the shipment. The whole process will be accompanied by the continuous transmission of the news surface, and for the current domestic off-season market, the appearance of the mark in the impression of the industry has been marked as a good, so the market reaction will follow the change of the mark news.

The specific role of this printing, one is reflected in the price, India IPL urea import bidding, received a total of 23 suppliers, a total of 3.382,500 tons. The lowest price on the East Coast is CFR396 USD/ton, and the lowest price on the West coast is CFR399 USD/ton. The landing of the price can directly affect the size of the arbitrage space at home and abroad, and the current printing price docking with the domestic factory price is there is export space, but before the price landing, the industry for the printing price of the expected value is too high, most of the speculation reached 400 US dollars/ton FOB, so when the boots landed, the price gradually returned to the rational level, the industry with the rising trend of decline, The forecast value of the future market weakened, and the market sentiment fell, and urea prices also showed a small trough decline cycle at this time. The second is the performance in the number, and the price is the same, before the news landing, we maintain a better mentality, and the most common news for the industry rumors for China’s supply may reach 1.1 million tons, the news led to yesterday’s futures late surge, and the most intuitive feedback of the number of printing is domestic supply and demand, for the current high Nissan domestic supply, The increase in the number of marking will undoubtedly delay the transfer of pressure on the supply side of the current manufacturers, and domestic prices will usher in new support points, and manufacturers have raised their offers.

Although the marking news gives the market a certain boost on the emotional side, the risks still cannot be ignored. First of all, the international supply will face the possibility of increasing after the end of the marking shipping schedule, and the fluctuations of international prices are unknown. Secondly, the new domestic production capacity will be installed in the second half of the year. For domestic trade, the pressure on the supply side is gradually emerging, and the export support can be smoothly connected with autumn wheat agriculture. It’s an important thing to focus on. Third, the impact of considerable factors such as national policies has not been determined, and factors such as legal inspection time and domestic port shipment capacity also need to be vigilant.

Overall, the market is supported by the impact of printing and other short-term, and the price still has high room to run, but the future market risk is constant, and it is necessary to pay careful attention to the fluctuations of the news surface.