[Introduction] : The ninth day of the cold, the twinkling of an eye has entered the “3949″, Shanxi, Henan, Shandong and other places ushered in a new round of snow weather, domestic urea in the winter wind forward.

Since the beginning of last weekend, some urea plants hit the sales pressure, have increased the price reduction to attract buying, low prices to attract traders to enhance, some companies began to purchase in the market. Under the mobilization of the market trading atmosphere, some high-price areas on Monday also adopted a timely price reduction strategy, the new single transaction consumption has been obviously good, the factory has accumulated, the offer has pushed up the trend, but the current round of confidence in the bottom, the market resistance gradually appeared after the price increase, the market’s continuous purchasing ability is not good, and further chase high blocked, Will the market turn before that year?

As can be seen from the figure above, the overall fourth quarter of 2023 is in a downward trend of shock, the favorable digestion of exports, coupled with the production of new capacity and the control of domestic supply stability, prices continue to fall to the bottom, although the northeast region and light reserves just need to follow up, but the market as a whole just need to be limited, the factory after entering December, to maintain the rhythm of fast rise and fast fall, repeatedly bottoming. As of January 17, the mainstream Shandong Linyi market sent the price at 2260 yuan/ton, the market price continues to test the early low price, although under the short-term low price stimulus, the factory continues to have a deal, but the price ultimately lacks substantial sustained upward momentum.

The plant continues to recover, and the daily output steadily increases

One of the important reasons to support the domestic urea market in December still has a stage of upward momentum is supply, the early supply of good, directly alleviated the negative sentiment caused by weak demand, so the price has a stage of upward momentum. However, the maintenance period is gradually coming to an end, some equipment companies have also begun to resume production plans, as of January 17, the urea industry daily output of 163,900 tons, a decrease of 0.03,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 16,200 tons from the same period last year. Starting in the second half of the year, the recovery of the device will be more concentrated, and the daily output will reach more than 170,000 tons. According to the latest inventory data of Longzhong, the inventory trend of the new week has changed from a decline to an increase of 54200 tons as of January 17, 2024, the total inventory of China’s urea enterprises is 54200 tons, an increase of 24,100 tons from last week, an increase of 4.65%. The increase in inventory data makes the market pessimistic, operators more cautious to enter the market operation.

Compound fertilizer enterprises are under pressure, and the demand side support is weak

Domestic compound fertilizer market under the enemy, on the one hand from the upstream raw materials continue to pressure caused by the lack of emotional confidence, on the other hand, their own terminal farmers benefit from poor, collection pressure increase and other impacts, two aspects of the mountain squeeze, difficult to move forward, some driving enterprises load decline, the consumption capacity of raw materials urea further narrowed, Therefore, the demand side support has not seen a sustained positive. Although there is a phased replenishment demand in agriculture, the agricultural take-up of goods presents flexibility and phased characteristics, and the sustained performance is poor, so the market lacks the ability to further chase up, and the price is shaking down in the continuous bottoming.

On the whole, the urea market still maintains a fast rising fast falling rhythm, under the conditions of poor performance on the demand side, urea factories maintain more price cut absorption strategy, as the downstream delisting is approaching, the pressure on factory orders before the holiday will gradually increase, so the market is expected to appear in no obvious good news, the market has no obvious bottom warning line, the recent price increase after a stalemate, Risk of pullback weakness.