[Introduction] The recent trend of urea market is elusive, the current period of the market, most people are bearish expectations, but the actual performance has reversed, the superposition of good news in the field has boosted trading confidence, and pushed the price up.

First, the market is active, and the price is high again

At present, the domestic urea market has continued to increase since the end of June, although the price has a narrow correction during the period, but the overall price shows an upward trend. Taking the Shandong market as an example, as of July 13, the Shandong market price was 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton from the same period last week, an increase of 7.62%.

From the end of June to the beginning of July, the topdressing season in some regions of Northeast China and Inner Mongolia has more than finished, and there are still some agricultural needs in other regions, supporting the urea market. According to the practice, entering early July, the price or shock finishing operation, most people in the industry expected to be short, or 50-100 yuan/ton down, but the actual market performance, the domestic market continues to rise, and some regional prices may break through the year’s high again.

Second, export, disk good news superposition, mood is good

Relying solely on domestic demand, prices may not be able to show the current sustained upward trend in the past two weeks. Among them, the factors driving prices up this week are also export news, and the impact of the continued high level of the plate, making the floor trading positive.

Exports: According to the closing price of exports in the previous period, the rise of large particles is more obvious, Lang large particles port offshore 262.01-272.01 US dollars/ton, up 7-12 US dollars/ton from last week; Egypt (Europe) large particle port FOB 360.01-370.01 USD/ton, up 15-20 USD/ton; Brazil large particle CFR price 315.01-325.01 USD/ton, up 10-35 USD/ton. At the same time, domestic factories are afraid that after the end of agricultural demand, the flow of goods is limited, and the export negotiation is slightly positive, and some domestic factories have more port flow orders. The increase in domestic and foreign orders of the factory, coupled with no obvious inventory pressure, the offer mentality is stronger.

Pan: After entering this week, the main contract is strong, and some contracts once rose by the limit. As of the close of the 13th, the settlement of 2063 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 1.46%, the continuous pull of the disk also boosted the spot trading sentiment.

Third, the industry mentality has been relatively changed, cautious follow up

According to the statistics of a variety of sample companies participating in the market, most of them are bullish, accounting for 58.14%, followed by flat people accounted for 41.86%, and the bearish market has not yet.

The main reasons that affect the current industry mentality are as follows: 1. In terms of factories, there are plenty of orders waiting to be sent, and the number of days waiting to be sent is as long as one month under the increase of new orders in peripheral factories; At the same time, there is no inventory pressure on the factory, and the price is still based on the price. 2. Traders, although it is feared that there will be resistance to the downstream of sustained high prices, for the current positive atmosphere of trading on the floor, most of them still have cautious bullish expectations for next week’s market. 3. In terms of other types of enterprises, the recent trend is more unexpected, and there is a fear of sudden factors affecting the market trend, so it is cautious to look at the level.

Joyce

MIT-IVY INDUSTRY Co.,Ltd.

Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China

Phone/WhatsApp : + 86 19961957599

Email : joyce@mit-ivy.com   http://www.mit-ivy.com