[Introduction] : Just in May experienced the “red cherry, green banana”, it ushered in the 24 solar terms in ear. Domestic Henan, Suwan, Shandong and other places to carry out wheat harvest. Urea market prices also bottomed out on the last day of May, just a little more than a week, domestic urea prices have risen to about 250-300 yuan/ton, with the harvest season, the recent atmosphere of urea to push up also played to the extreme, next we take a look at the reasons for the next round of rises and future market development expectations.

Many factors helped guide the formation of this round of gains

One reason: With the continuous decline of urea market prices in the early stage, some factories have been in a state of loss, and has been in the process of sliding channel in May, downstream users and traders are difficult to replenish the warehouse, with market sentiment will be low, rebound sentiment is particularly obvious, some downstream and traders are subject to the impact of empty storage, after the price slightly stabilized began to focus on replenishment, The rendering of the market atmosphere and the improvement of the pan at the end of the month also make the local delivery shortage of the factory, and after the rise of the downstream delivery willingness, urea enterprises increase the offer accordingly.

The second reason: the boost of the international situation is undoubtedly also to the rebound market at that time to add a booster, marking the news, so that domestic urea manufacturers export interest increased, and heard that some northern ports a small number of port activities, the rise also expanded.

The third reason: the corn in some parts of the north gradually began to be sown, and the application of corn bottom fertilizer in summer is expected to arrive, and the production of compound fertilizer factories still exists at this time, and the overlap of industrial and agricultural needs leads to the improvement of the downstream sentiment of taking goods.

The rally is tapering off and worries are emerging

Supply expectation: In addition to the new equipment put into operation in June, the overall supply side will be improved, with the gradual easing of loading and unloading, the short-term supply shortage of the market spot may be alleviated, and the factory’s orders to be issued are gradually implemented. Demand expectations: At present, the construction of some compound fertilizer plants is still acceptable, but with the end of the summer corn fertilizer production season, the construction of compound fertilizer plants is expected to gradually decline. At present, the compound fertilizer plants in Shandong and other places have stopped, and Henan can still maintain 5-7 days or so. The weakening of supply and demand expectations also makes the current downstream users and traders have low willingness to buy new orders. In addition, the factory delivery time is longer, and the market price is weakened. In agriculture, some areas of corn fertilizer is expected to be applied, but after the centralized replenishment, the demand side will continue to show a phased dispersion situation. Other expectations: with the news such as printing, the industry suspects that changes in international prices may become a new turning point.

Overall, the rise has initially slowed down, is expected to weaken the risk of rising power in the later period, the factory is ready to support, the market price is still running at a high level in recent days, but with the possibility of further loosening after stabilizing the market, follow up next Monday’s printing price and compound fertilizer production.