In a flash, November has passed, and 2023 will enter the last month. For the urea market, the urea market fluctuated in November. The policy and news surface of the month continue to have a significant impact on the market. In November, the overall price rose and then fell, but the rise or fall was not high. Faced with changing market sentiment and changes in the future supply and demand situation, can urea usher in a market break in December, and what kind of market will urea end in 2023?

Supply 1: The maintenance of the equipment increased in December, and the Nissan gradually declined.

With the continuous maintenance of the gas head enterprises in December, urea daily production will gradually decline, through the expected maintenance time of the enterprise, the maintenance time of the enterprise starts from the middle and early December. In this way, after mid-to-late December, urea daily production or gradually decreased to near 150-160,000 tons, which is undoubtedly a positive support for the urea market. Of course, the decline in Nissan can not directly drive the rise of the market, but also depends on the level of prices and demand to follow up. It should be noted that at the end of November, the urea market showed a weak loosening trend, and the maintenance of the device was concentrated after December 10, in the middle of a week or so, is the urea market down replenishment opportunity?

Supply two: Business inventories remain below year-ago levels

According to Longzhong data show that as of November 29, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 473,400 tons, down 517,700 tons from the same period last year, obviously this year’s urea inventory is still at a low median level, and the inventory is slow for a long time, which will form a certain favorable support for the urea market. We can see from the inventory trend, since July this year, the domestic urea enterprise inventory has been at a low level, and urea prices since August, has been at a high level of volatility. Therefore, the enterprise inventory will support the short-term market bottom of urea to a certain extent.

Demand: Reserve demand is delayed, and agriculture may follow after mid-to-late December.

From the market performance point of view, in November, most of the industrial just need to promote, and some countries’ commercial weak reserves to cover positions. Because urea prices did not fall sharply in November, the basic Shandong factory price failed to fall below 2300 yuan/ton price level, agriculture due to poor liquidity, and the price is at a high level of shock, so that the reserve demand for agriculture delayed. Entering December, although it is not certain that agriculture has a centralized follow-up trend, according to time projections, the probability of appropriate agricultural cover from mid to late December to January will gradually increase, and the supply of urea in December will decline, and there will be changes in purchasing sentiment in the middle, and the market will be repeated.

Price: The price is lower than the corresponding level

As of the end of November, Shandong urea mainstream factory in 2390-2430 yuan/ton, lower than the same period last year about 300 yuan/ton, and the recent sound of high supply, while the enterprise inventory and slow inventory, the market or due to changes in supply and demand and changes in sentiment, constantly flip, the price fall space still need to wait and see, can not be overly bearish.

At present, there is a correction in the urea market, the demand has not yet been concentrated, and the device maintenance is also in the middle of the middle, the short gap in the middle, or the downstream when the appropriate cover, but it still depends on the price decline and the duration of the fall.