With the snow in most parts of the north, the recent closure of the market began to cool, and the factory’s new collection of pressure strikes, and the price of this round of reduction has been gradually increasing, and the supply of the parking lot of the local air and head enterprises does not seem to give the market a certain incentive to climb, and the downstream industry is constantly holding down the price of the market, and the bottom of the market is gradually under the bottom. In the weak supply and demand, factories and traders also began to play the game.

Until December 19, domestic urea enterprises under the pressure to reduce the negotiation price, the price reduction is larger on the downstream and traders to attract more efforts to buy, of which Henan enterprises factory transaction price in about 2350-2380 yuan/ton, Linyi market transaction price in about 2440-2450 yuan/ton, mainstream regional transactions have obvious signs of good, Short-term bottom support gradually appeared, the market can successfully break the ice?

The supply of installed parking is down and the demand is flat

Under the gradual landing of the maintenance plan of the early gas enterprises, the long-awaited decline in Nissan finally fulfilled, as of December 19, the urea industry daily output of 161,800 tons, a decrease of 0.68 million tons from the previous working day, an increase of 14,800 tons from the same period last year. Although the decline in the supply side has eased the tension of the market in a short period of time, there is no obvious effect on the price support power at this time. First, although the supply side has declined at this time, it is still at a high level compared with last year, and second, due to the early release of the maintenance news of the gas head enterprises, the industry has digested the positive growth point in advance, so the market is still relatively cautious. Although compound fertilizer enterprises are currently in the production season, due to the cost and single pressure under the production plan began to reduce, some regional compound fertilizer factories began to have parking plans, phased replenishment is mostly based on just need, demand performance is difficult to support prices continue to rise.

Although the inventory has accumulated, the overall spot supply is controllable

Inventory data from recent periods show that the current domestic urea enterprise inventory has a slow increase trend, but because the downstream inventory and social inventory is relatively low, so when the factory increases the price reduction, the inventory transfer began to accelerate. For example, this wave of market trend, affected by the previous days of rain and snow weather, in most northern regions, the flow of factories is insufficient, and the inventory is showing an increasing trend, but the sharp decline in prices has attracted more attention to the downstream buying, and also eased the pressure on the increase of factory inventory to a certain extent, and the current inventory is still at a low level compared with the same period last year.

On the whole, although the price reduction has increased, the buying interest of the industry has increased to a certain extent, but most of the purchase prices are low, and the high price resistance still exists. In the short term, the pressure of new factory orders is increasing, although the price reduction is limited under the support of the development, but the market lacks the ability to continue to follow up, and some low prices are gradually increasing, and the market has more signs of stalemate before there is no obvious good news.