[Introduction] : Recently, with the cold air, most of the northern provinces ushered in the snow mode, to the end of the year, the urea market is in a wave of news in the impact of the rise and fall, the market change quickly gradually affect the industry on the future market judgment, the deep winter approaching, the industry Nissan has been slow to fall, the demand is difficult to hide cautious attitude, short-term bottom can bring a turnaround for the urea market?

At present, the market is interwoven with good and bad, and the mutual restriction of supply and demand is the basis of market stalemate and volatility, while the contradiction of the news surface creates conditions for the short-wave market. With the market demand side after the phased buying, take the enthusiasm gradually cooling, since last Friday began the urea market began to stalemate operation, weekend some factories in the acceptance pressure gradually appeared signs of easing, until this morning, the mainstream Shandong region of some factories appropriate bottoming orders, the good news to stimulate the surrounding market atmosphere, Henan and other places have followed up the transaction situation, The industry’s enthusiasm for inquiry gradually increased. As of December 12, the market price in Linyi, Shandong Province was about 2,450 yuan/ton, and the stage bottom gradually appeared.

As the winter storage time is approaching, when urea prices have not been stabilized, agricultural fertilizer preparation in most regions has been in a stage of preparation. Especially in Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong and other places, due to its agricultural characteristics and crop growth cycle, the traditional winter wax fertilizer has signs of start-up, but because the agricultural fertilizer is still in the off-season in other regions, the agricultural market temporarily lacks a concentrated buying situation, sporadic follow-up mostly exists in the winter wax fertilizer region, so the agricultural market support is limited, and more regional follow-up features.

Compound fertilizer enterprises are in the middle and high level of construction. From the point of view of the mainstream regions, the early-stage low-load equipment in Northeast China has been gradually upgraded, the early-stage parking equipment in Hubei province has resumed production, and the capacity utilization rate of large-scale enterprises in Shandong province is better. In Henan and Suanhui regions, the plant operation of enterprises is relatively stable, so the urea consumption is relatively good, although the procurement attitude of raw urea is still cautious, but the production needs exist, injecting the main impetus for the recent urea market.

In addition, the recent market attention should be higher in this aspect of exports, because the policy side continues to see signs of tightening, before most port cargo departure plan temporarily shelved, according to long data, China’s urea port sample inventory in 212,000 tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons, an increase of 1.44%. In the case of export restrictions, the mentality of the cargo holders gradually anxious, one after another heard that some of the supply began to appear backflow situation, although the short-term market direction is not clear, but how many backflow supply for the market spot impact, the industry is still worried about the future market.

In summary, the recent urea market is alternating between good and bad, the news surface release impact time is short and the market attitude is sensitive, the factory has no willingness to yield profits under the support of short-term transactions, the demand side remains a stage follow-up, under the support of the new single transaction, the market price remains strong in the short term, and the catch-up range also needs to pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation.