In 2023, the domestic yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose, and the spot price was at an absolute high in the past five years, with an average price of 25,158 yuan/ton from January to September, down 25.31% compared with last year (33,682 yuan/ton); The lowest point of the year was 18,500 yuan/ton in mid-May, and the highest point was 31,500 yuan/ton in early January.

From January to September, the market price of yellow phosphorus is driven by the continuous transformation between the cost logic and the supply and demand logic. Compared with the same period in 2022, the cost and demand of yellow phosphorus are both negative and negative, the price of yellow phosphorus has fallen, and the profit margin has been greatly reduced. Specifically, the price of yellow phosphorus in the first half of the year from January to mid-May mainly fell; In the first half of the year, the domestic demand market is depressed, some downstream enterprises have high inventories, enterprises are bearish, the enthusiasm for yellow phosphorus procurement is not high, and the recovery of yellow phosphorus enterprises is significantly faster than the recovery of demand, there is a state of oversupply, yellow phosphorus manufacturers are under pressure, and the industry inventory is gradually rising. Superimposed raw material phosphate ore, coke, graphite electrodes and other prices fell, entered the wet period after the electricity price cut, the cost of negative price negotiations, resulting in the yellow phosphorus price focus continues to move down, the industry profit margin significantly reduced. By the end of May, the price fell to a low level and began to slowly rebound, mainly because the price of yellow phosphorus continued to decline, some enterprises cost upside down, choose to stop production and reduce production, yellow phosphorus production was significantly reduced, driving the inventory consumption of yellow phosphorus industry, and enterprises increased confidence in prices. The cost side has also stopped falling and stabilized, some raw materials have a rebound trend, the cost side has increased support, some foreign demand orders such as glyphosate have risen, the profit margin of enterprises is large, the start-up load is high, and the demand for yellow phosphorus market is stable, making the yellow phosphorus market in a tight state of supply, and the price has turned to continue to rise. With the gradual increase of enterprises, yellow phosphorus inventory continues to accumulate, the current yellow phosphorus market supply is sufficient, downstream demand is weak, oversupply leads to high prices are difficult to maintain, it is difficult to rise significantly in the short term.

The main reasons for the trend of yellow phosphorus market from January to September are: the frequent game between upstream and downstream caused by the imbalance of supply and demand, the rising price of raw materials, and the changes in policy.

It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus market in the fourth quarter will continue to fluctuate, and in October, yellow phosphorus enterprises will wait and see the market, but the demand is weak, or there is still a possibility of decline. The subsequent power rationing in Yunnan is still expected to intensify, and the price of electricity in the dry season will rise, and the cost will support the yellow phosphorus market. The demand side continues to be weak, and the downstream phosphoric acid, phosphorus trichloride and glyphosate markets are cold, and there is no strong favorable support for demand.